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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60087 times)
Doctor Imperialism
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« on: October 09, 2016, 05:49:34 pm »


Yup. Jesus ing Christ, guys, the landslide might be happening.
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2016, 12:10:41 am »

A former Cruz guy on another forum I post on says he got his hands on some brand-new Trump internals, via a contact in the campaign. Take these with as many grains of salt as you want, but here they are:

New Hampshire - Clinton +9
Pennsylvania - Clinton +7
Ohio - Clinton +2
Michigan - Clinton +6
Wisconsin - Clinton +4
Iowa - Trump +2
Virginia - Clinton +10
North Carolina - Clinton +5
Georgia - TIE
Florida - Clinton +4
Colorado - Clinton +7
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Clinton +3
Utah - Trump +4

Trump's support in Utah is apparently in the low 30's.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 12:14:33 am by Doctor Imperialism »Logged
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2016, 12:34:41 am »

No way these would get leaked.

Like I said, take those numbers with as many grains of salt as you want - but I think you're giving the Trump campaign a little too much credit.

According to the guy that posted these, Other/Undecided is getting a larger percentage in Utah than Trump is (they didn't include McMullin or Johnson as a separate option)

Quote
The theory the internal pollsters are running with is that people who choose "other candidate" will actually vote third party on the day - while if you list Johnson or McMullin, they will tend to get more support than they will actually get on the day.
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2016, 09:02:08 am »

For those fretting about MI
https://twitter.com/ericheggie

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
Some of you may wonder why  @realDonaldTrump will not win Michigan, well let me lay out why from both public and some internal data 1/?"

"So first is the public data, in last weeks Fox 2 Detroit poll Trump was losing over 65 year olds by double digits to Clinton, which... 2/?"

"matches what we are seeing internally.  He's losing them BIGLY. You can't win MI as an R while losing over 65 year olds. Now for the 3/?"

"Internal info. We have over 160K hard IDs in MI.  Our last persuasion pass was Friday and we were talking to a very bad universe for us 4/?"

"If a Republican is going to win MI they should be winning that universe, but anyone want to take a guess how late Undecideds/R's moved? 6/x"

"Clinton won that universe by 5 pts, which she should not be doing if Trump has any hope of winning in Michigan. #MAGA ain't happening. 7/7"

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@jcpolls I think she wins it closer to 8.  Around what Obama did."

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@akaashkolluri no we are not. All the polls show her winning Michigan. Data from the field shows it too."

Sad
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