Internal poll megathread

[Speed of Sound]

Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah

Any link?

Was he referring to that Georgia poll?

That seems most likely. Not sure what other polls he would have had that far ahead of time by this point.

[Speed of Sound]

538 has more details on this Indiana poll. The pollster is called "Expedition Strategies", was taken over August 1-3, included 600 Likely Voters, and was adjusted to a 1 point lead for Clinton in the 538 polls-only model and a 1 point lead for Trump in the polls-plus model.

It's given no grade at all and is weighted at .47 (cf. Tarrance's late July poll still at .41, and Marist's April poll still weighted at .96), for those interested.

[Speed of Sound]

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

They're dreaming.  I can't see the third party vote breaking double digits anywhere except Utah, NM, and maybe Alaska.

Yeah, they really are. At least a month ago it would have been cute theorizing, but it's very clear in the polling that a regular 3rd party collapse is well underway.

[Speed of Sound]

Probably something like +5, then, which sounds right.

[Speed of Sound]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.

Not an Internal. Didn't know the best place to post it and didn't think it deserved it's on thread so I figured it would be alright here.

You're good. I think there is precedent for CD polls being dumped here. Good looking #s indeed.

[Speed of Sound]

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

[Speed of Sound]

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

[Speed of Sound]

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

Wikipedia, Nevada's 4th CD. Easy

Ha! That's pretty funny. Looks like I went over-specific in my hunt. Oh well, thanks a bunch!

[Speed of Sound]

Don't buy that kind of internal margin. Way more GOP opportunists would have run for the hills. That margin could happen Akin style, but I don't believe that the GOP sees it right now.

[Speed of Sound]

PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232

I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789895377600319488

[Speed of Sound]

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

[Speed of Sound]

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

We've had zero numbers in any way, other than positive early voting numbers like usual. The white knuckles around here have been ridiculous.

[Speed of Sound]

That's very good to hear, indeed, and gives more credence to what was already the sense: the unaffiliateds are breaking hard for HRC and that's where the poll adv is. Not close to a sure thing, but a little extra evidence in that direction.

[Speed of Sound]

Hmm. Yeah, they're pretty dead-on about this kind of thing. I wonder what they started seeing, since they didn't see anything at first. We'll see what they have.

[Speed of Sound]

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

[Speed of Sound]

Which sounds kinda like PPP does.

[Speed of Sound]

I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.

[Speed of Sound]

I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.

...A total hack that has been proven to be a mouthpiece of HRC campaign as if we needed proof. 

Well, you're (to say the least) quite an extreme partisan, so I'm not terribly worried about your opinion when I'm seeking to find the current reality of the race. Like I said, here's the message, it jibes more or less with what we've actually seen in the numbers so far (not saying anything of what's to come). Take it or leave it.

[Speed of Sound]

Not sure if these will be public polls so posting them here...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  7m7 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
Just got out of field in 2 Midwestern states we tracked a week ago- margin unchanged in one, Hillary actually doing 2 points better in other

Hmm. I wonder if their earlier statement was more a gut feeling of the tweeter based on other info rather than their own. Until they actually release anything, impossible to say. Good to hear, though.

[Speed of Sound]

Once again, I'm only here to post info. Don't shoot me, please:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Speed of Sound]

Once again, I'm only here to post info. Don't shoot me, please:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's all well and good and believable, Clinton official, but what also matters is if it affects Trump's support.

You're certainly not wrong about that. A 'coming home' for Rs would be the best way for T to tighten the race.

[Speed of Sound]

Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

Yeah, out of all the pollsters this cycle, they haven't been the friendliest to Hillary.

To be fair, they also include an online component.

Yeah, IVR-only like Emerson is a serious problem. It's (probably/all but) all evened out in PPP, I think.

[Speed of Sound]

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.

Hmmm, turning a corner are we?

[Speed of Sound]

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

[Speed of Sound]

Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.

Really kind of surprised to him say this publicly.