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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60092 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: September 17, 2016, 01:41:42 pm »

In PA's 8th CD, Republican internal poll shows Clinton (42-37) running ahead of Obama in 2012 (50-49).

Apparently I don't have enough posts to include links yet, but you can find it on The Morning Call (mcall.com) if you search for "Fitzpatrick with some good news for Clinton in the 8th District?"

(or just go to: mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-fitzpatrick-with-some-good-news-for-clinton-in-the-8th-district-20160916-story.html)
 
« Last Edit: September 17, 2016, 01:45:30 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
Ozymandias
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2016, 07:17:38 am »

I think this is a leaked internal FL poll from "conservative-leaning Associated Industries of Florida"...

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/223845-national-democrats-pull-ads-new-associated-industries-poll-shows-patrick-murphy-trailing-marco-rubio-eight

10/2-10/4

Rubio - 49
Murphy - 41

Clinton - 44
Trump - 41
Johnson - 6
Stein - 2
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2016, 09:55:29 am »

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785854945136353280

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Donald J. Trump
Actually, nope. Just saw legit private polling done AFTER DEBATE.  You are down by double digits. #YugeDisastah #BigLoser

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785856534890905600

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Robert Costa
Just saw private natl poll with Trump unfav at 66%(!)… so OK Trumpolini, teach us!  #IdiotNominee

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785857249734385665

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  4m4 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Warren Luke Tarbiat
Even worse than the -11% in the highly respected NBC/WSJ poll…

« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 10:03:20 am by Ozymandias »Logged
Ozymandias
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2016, 09:19:03 pm »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/us/politics/donald-trump-gop.html

"Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has concluded that at least two traditionally Republican states, Georgia and Arizona, are realistic targets for her campaign to win over. And Republican polling has found that Mr. Trump is at dire risk of losing Georgia, according to people briefed on the polls, who spoke on the condition of anonymity."
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 09:09:19 am »


With 2012 results (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections)

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 // OBAMA +3.6
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 // OBAMA +16.4
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (48-38 2 way) // ROMNEY +9.5
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 // OBAMA +8.5
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 // OBAMA +0.8
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 // OBAMA +5.5
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2016, 05:13:51 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 12:10:37 pm »

Not sure if these will be public polls so posting them here...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  7m7 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
Just got out of field in 2 Midwestern states we tracked a week ago- margin unchanged in one, Hillary actually doing 2 points better in other
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 03:48:17 pm »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
Every NC poll we've done in the last month has had Clinton up narrowly. She will probably win. If she loses it will be likely be by 1-2 pts
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 04:23:45 pm »

Of the 64.4% (322/500) of respondents who said they already voted:

Clinton - 46  (+6.0)
Trump - 40
Johnson - 8
Stein - 2
Other - 2

Huh

Sorry I had multiple threads open, posted in wrong one-- deleting this post.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 08:00:52 pm »

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
"Just saw new CO survey. Live calls to landline and cell. Trump -6."

(Presumably he means Trump is down 6.)
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 08:06:51 pm »

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
"Just saw new CO survey. Live calls to landline and cell. Trump -6."

(Presumably he means Trump is down 6.)
Is this the magellan thing?

Hmm, not sure, I guess it could be. 
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 04:44:40 pm »

Frida Ghitis ‏@FridaGhitis  3h3 hours ago
Político writer tells MSNBC that Trump has stopped polling - because he refuses to pay his pollster. May explain campaigning in odd places.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 03:17:57 am »


Actually, there was one little nugget of internal polling:

And in Wisconsin, one Democrat said, “It's not even close. Both Clinton and [former Sen. Russ] Feingold have 30-point leads in early voting.”
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 09:35:41 pm »

@ppppolls How's the feeling on Ohio though?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

@ppppolls how's your feeling on New Hampshire a lot of movement there recently .. which actually makes me less inclined to believe it

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  5m5 minutes ago
PublicPolicyPolling Retweeted Marc Diamond
I think Hillary will outperform the poll averages in NH

@ppppolls Why do you think that?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  4m4 minutes ago
Because our last poll had her up 5 and most of the 'bad' polls for her last week there had field dates with the Comey stuff very fresh

@ppppolls Do you agree with Ralston on NV?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  4m4 minutes ago
Yes. Every poll we've released this year has had both Clinton and Cortez Masto winning
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 09:36:24 pm »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50
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