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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60556 times)
calvinhobbesliker
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« on: October 16, 2016, 04:02:39 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

Hmmm that's interesting strategic logic there. I understand the concept of wanting to focus time and resources on OH,FL, and NC and a lesser extent NV, but I think they might be playing it too safe in the case of AZ, which statewide polling and Trump's own internals clearly consider to be endangered, judging by his repeated recent visits to the state, and it is worth it in the long term to boost Dem turnout and infrastructure in a state that is starting to shift purple. GA, I can understand considering the structural advantages the Reps have and how difficult it is to get that extra 1% to move it across the finish line, not to mention the cost of the Atlanta media market.

However, I would trade IA for AZ any day as a medium and longer term investment.

I think they care more about running up the score in PA, NH, NC, and maybe Florida to try and win the Senate races there, instead of going for AZ/GA which would look nice on the final map but don't (right now) have competitive Senate races to justify the effort.
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2016, 09:30:05 am »

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2016, 02:16:50 pm »



I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.


Yep, and it disproves Bill Mitchell's "Monster Vote" Theory.
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 05:25:28 pm »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

There are Reuters polls.
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 07:47:17 pm »

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2016/11/trump-for-ny-poll-shows-a-much-closer-race-in-ny/

Trump internal has Clinton up 49-38 in New York, after doing a push question.

"Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 06:08:50 pm »

That or they're taking Mook's bait.
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