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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61105 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: August 19, 2016, 10:26:33 am »

Considering how Virginia and Colorado have basically shifted from tossup to likely dem overnight, its hard to find a state more similar to those two than NC. NC is the new VA.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2016, 10:31:12 am »

Considering how Virginia and Colorado have basically shifted from tossup to likely dem overnight, its hard to find a state more similar to those two than NC. NC is the new VA.

Can't really say that for anyone other than Trump though. State would be close but I have to believe any other Republican would win it against Clinton especially.

True, but the real question will be if Trump is a fluke or a harbinger of permanent realignment. It's not hard for me to imagine him permanently shifting VA, CO, and NC slightly bluer from now on. Especially considering that Romney and McCain were about as acceptable to your average college educated white as any GOP candidate I see coming down the road any time soon, and these states were at least competitive under those two candidates. A 5% college educated white shift basically puts VA away, makes CO lean dem (at least as much as NH, PA) and makes NC the new FL.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2016, 11:31:02 am »

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2016, 12:03:30 pm »

Mike Murphy, referencing the NBC/WSJ poll that just dropped:

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785514622547734528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking"

Correlates with PPP as well... wow.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2016, 09:54:03 am »

Not really an internal. PPP has a poll of FL for an anti-gun violence group:

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000158-0ab5-d236-ad5d-dab74e5e0001

Clinton 48
Trump 44

Murphy and Rubio tied at 46
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 01:58:24 pm »

Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP Tongue

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

Yeah, out of all the pollsters this cycle, they haven't been the friendliest to Hillary.

To be fair, they also include an online component.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 10:27:02 am »

Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 10:34:57 am »

Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
Interesting, their 2012 electorate was Obama 51 - Romney 41

That's pretty common, people overestimate supporting the winner.
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