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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 60094 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« on: July 22, 2016, 10:08:17 pm »

Go. Away.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 07:10:09 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? Smiley

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?

There a numerous reasons to get internals out...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2016, 09:39:48 pm »

I think the margin is too high, but fantasies about WI being a Trump/tipping point state are bonkers.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2016, 12:18:20 am »

No way these would get leaked.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 12:28:15 am »

Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.

Maybe attempt to verify first?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2016, 07:09:35 pm »

Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 04:30:09 am »

Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.

Well... I suppose it is.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 08:04:50 am »

John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The Trump person isn't talking about polling, they're talking about a path. A least Clinton's is talking about the lay of the land.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 08:41:00 am »

If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.

If I had to guess, I think Trump ends up winning both by about the same margin (2-3 points).

Wait... I'm more optimistic than you are?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 09:39:34 pm »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

MO by an eyelash? Lol.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2016, 03:18:07 am »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

Clinton exceeded expectations in Ohio due to anti-Trump cross-overs, not her ground game. Roll Eyes

Actually no. The cross-over didn't do THAT much. She over-performed because pollsters freaked out due to the MI f*** up and f***ed that up too.
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