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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 63872 times)
Lief 🐋
Lief
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Dominica


« on: August 29, 2016, 04:30:04 pm »

Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 10:16:10 am »

Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2016, 12:17:01 am »

This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

The 2004 and 2008 debates also had similar shifts (though the 2008 debate was mixed up Lehman Brothers and the aftermath of that). But IIRC in 2004 Bush was leading by like 10 points before the first debate, and then Kerry brought it back to a tie.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2016, 08:10:27 pm »

Of all the currently red states in the 538 forecast, Clinton has the third highest chance of winning Alaska, after Arizona and Georgia. Interesting......
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2016, 10:10:25 pm »

Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 10:50:08 pm »

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 10:57:07 pm »

He added another tweet:

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The 7th race is Florida, by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 10:57:49 pm »

Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2016, 02:46:37 pm »

All these internals are showing huge swings to Clinton in California. She could end up winning the state by 30 points.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2016, 12:46:14 am »

Check this Caporale guy's twitter. He's literally just retweeting Reuters/Ipsos polls.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 02:21:52 pm »

PPP says their polling has Clinton ahead in NH, for what it's worth.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 03:42:16 pm »

If they're not going to release public polls, what would they be tweeting about? It's pretty rare that they release info on their polling for clients.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2016, 07:53:31 am »

Even the Trump campaign admits Arizona is a tossup!
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 08:29:37 am »

If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.

If I had to guess, I think Trump ends up winning both by about the same margin (2-3 points).
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 09:45:58 am »

John Harwood

"top GOP Senate strategist: "All races w/in MOE. think we have IN. concerned about PA/NV this morning. Trump finishing well. comes up short""

Reading between the lines... Indiana is the only one they think they will win and PA and NV are definitely gone.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 10:18:57 am »

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

Yeah, I don't buy the "Comey actually INCREASED Dem enthusiasm" spin, but I do think Trump closing the gap has scared Democrats into shifting back from unlikely to likely voters.
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Lief 🐋
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Dominica


« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2016, 11:51:59 am »

Campaigning on election day is stupid. You want your staff 100% focused on GOTV. Organizing an election rally is just a distraction.
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