Internal poll megathread

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

Oh my goodness

Mondale territory?

[Person Man]

Mondale was at 74%.


http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1984/

[Person Man]

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

I can see that. It is where a Senior Developer and a Hospital Revenue Bureaucrat can still have 2.5 kids and still live like Republicans.

[Person Man]

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.

So, if this is true, we are looking at a 1988 margin?

[Person Man]

John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well

With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?

[Person Man]

So, what we see is probably what we get with a week and change left.

[Person Man]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts

So what is most expected is a 4 to 6 point race....about 48 to 42. Maybe third parties will take 6 or 7 percent and leave 2 or 3% undecided. I expect 49-44-3-2-1-1

[Person Man]

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

Is it not the same person that "a former FBI agent says anonymously"?..

I mean why the hell would they spread bad news to depress their own pubs? If Trump will lose in landslide, GOP will lose senate as well.

Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense, does it?

where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.

If they win all their firewall races and lose all their non-firewall races (except Bayh), that gives them 50.

[Person Man]

@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

This top GOP pollster might be Tony Fabrizio, who linked to Harwood's tweet and said:

Tony Fabrizio
‏@TonyFabrizioGOP Tony Fabrizio Retweeted John Harwood
What if the turnout models are wrong and turnout looks more like 2014 than it does 2012?

Then maybe Trump wins NC, Nevada and Florida by 3, Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin by 1.5-2.0. Loses Virginia and New Hampshire by 1. Wins Ohio and Iowa by 8-10.
It turns out to be a very 2004ish election. May not be a significant change in Congress.

[Person Man]

Oddly the Senate polls have been moving in the opposite direction.

Think a lot of Republicans are getting behind the McGinties, Rosses, Hassans as a hedge against holding their nose for teh Donald?

[Person Man]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.

Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".

So the reality is really Tied to 4 points? I believe it. One more oppo hit against Hillary and Trump will win. Else, she wins.

[Person Man]

39% is the top number this late in the race? Literally the worst poll ever.

Thats 22% undecided or third party?

[Person Man]

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
"Just saw new CO survey. Live calls to landline and cell. Trump -6."

(Presumably he means Trump is down 6.)

Is this the magellan thing?

[Person Man]

Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"

If that's true, he's phucked.  It would be funny if Ohio is like Missouri in 2008 where it comes down to a recount but Hillary has already won.

[Person Man]

I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

No one wants it to end like this...

[Person Man]

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.

I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.

[Person Man]

As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.

I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.

What is that supposed to mean?

That they weren't about promoting fossil fuel companies or that they had a major stay in steering the BC00 and BC04 administration.

[Person Man]

He doesn't want to interfer the election process

And he wants to be... unpredictable

I'm the White Wizard!

[Person Man]

He doesn't want to interfer the election process

And he wants to be... unpredictable

I'm the White Wizard!

No, you are black!

The BLACK wizard

[Person Man]

Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.

Everyone's reputation is on the line.

This wouldn't be an Obama/Romney thing where Obama opened a modest but comfortable lead where he was always barely ahead? This would be a bigger error if they were wrong.

[Person Man]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.

Yea, thats quite suprising, there pessimism on missouri is interesting as well.  

Not really. Roy Blunt is probably the underdog in this race and has run a hilariously incompetent campaign.

NC is definitely a surprise, though.

I would lol if Kander wins and Missouri has two democrats in the senate.

[Person Man]

Feeling a lot better about Colorado and PA with this data.

If either one is lost or uncertain, there will be crow for Thanksgiving AND Christmas here!

[Person Man]

David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.

If you do a Rule of Four, it will probably be like Clinton 48, Trump 46 and basically New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and maybe Colorado by the skin of her teeth while eventually losing Florida and North Carolina between 1 and 2.