Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 17, 2020, 05:21:34 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 64703 times)
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,942


« on: July 18, 2016, 12:17:38 am »
« edited: July 18, 2016, 12:33:20 am by Likely Voter »

Harper Polling (Internal for Senate Campaign of Republican Dan Carter)
Clinton 43%
Trump 43%

July 5-6; 600 RV; Unknown MOE

It's a Republican internal, so definitely salt to taste and don't put it in the database.  I don't believe it, but Quinnipiac had CT at a relatively close (for CT) 45-38 Clinton back in June.

Do we have a megathread for publicly released internals somewhere?  We probably should.  They may be the only polls we get for some of the less polled states.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,942


« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2016, 08:16:40 pm »

Trump +8 in Missouri in an internal poll for Republican gubernatorial candidate Eric Greitens by the Tarrance Group:

Trump 46%
Clinton 38%

September 19-22; MoE +/- 4.1.

Koster is up by 3 in the governor's race.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,942


« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2016, 10:45:27 pm »


Takers for what?  I doubt Maine pollsters poll in French.  As you pointed out, French-speaking Mainers are less than 10% of the population.  And most of them probably speak English, too, anyway, like many Québécois.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,942


« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2016, 07:59:19 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,942


« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2016, 11:34:18 pm »

Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.

But their methods, robo polling, has an R lean this cycle. No interviews in Spanish and no live callers, so it's not like they would methodologically favor D's.

When selectively releasing poll info for private pollsters, it's all about the special sauce pollsters use to achieve the result.  For example, is PPP's reported result before or after pushing voters against Trump after message testing for their client?  Is the turnout model what most expect or the best-case-scenario for their client?  What state are they polling?  A state with a lot of moderate Republicans and NeverTrumpers like Utah or a state with a lot of Trump supporters?

There's also no reason a robo-poller can't poll in Spanish (press 2 for Spanish is perfectly possible), and no evidence that not polling in Spanish even matters in the state polled for their client.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,942


« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2016, 06:50:21 pm »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,942


« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2016, 07:06:39 pm »

NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?

I don't know...I don't work for them and they haven't revealed the secret sauce recipe

My one question, cheap Google Consumer Research South Dakota poll that's currently in the field is only half-done, but so far, I can tell you there are no real surprises except perhaps the Johnson percentage.  It's pretty much in line with what I expected from South Dakota.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,942


« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2016, 04:21:25 pm »

I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

My Google-fu is better than your Google-fu.  The first thing I found after Googling 'presidential vote by congressional district' was this:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC