Internal poll megathread

[Holmes]

It's in line with a 5% or so statewide victory for Trump. KS-01 will drag him over the finish line.

[Holmes]

Clinton +6 in KS-03

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right

375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.

Mmm. I dunno. KS-03 is more similar to NE-02 than NE-01. Lincoln is drowned out by surrounding suburbs and rural areas in Nebraska's first that I don't think Clinton really has a chance.

[Holmes]

Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.

[Holmes]

Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

[Holmes]

Sending anyone to Alaska is kind of a waste. It's only three electoral votes, and takes about 8 hours or so to fly there, depending on where you're leaving from. There are more important stops on the mainland that surrogates can go to instead.

[Holmes]

I'm thinking 2008 + AZ + GA - IN, with an outside shot at MO and an even more outside shot at SC.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.

[Holmes]

Are these GOP internals?

Yeah, I think the New Hampshire one is the one from a week or so ago from the Ayotte campaign? Unless there was another internal with her up 14 in New Hampshire.

[Holmes]

I think the DSCC wants to defeat Rubio, but wants to get to 50 seats even more, and they see IN, MO and NC as easer paths (outside of the conventional IL/WI/PA/NH). They probably think defeating Rubio would be really expensive, and it would be, but they're downplaying his vulnerability. Oh well.

If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.

[Holmes]

Losing Iowa and winning Missouri would create a seriously cracked out map!

[Holmes]

Losing Iowa and winning Missouri would create a seriously cracked out map!

These are Senate numbers.

Still, I stand by it.