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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 59718 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: August 13, 2016, 02:24:46 pm »

A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720
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Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2016, 03:51:29 pm »

Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2016, 03:59:42 pm »

Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
Nah, that is just his New York pollster. His real pollster is Tony Fabrizio iirc.

So, has he actually done any New York polling or is it just an honorary position?
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2016, 05:45:44 pm »

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2016, 05:56:58 pm »

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.

The question is why. RCP is notorious for cherrypicking R friendly polls.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2016, 02:10:57 am »

From a Politico piece.

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2016, 12:26:52 pm »

Well, Monmouth's IN/MO poll match Clarity's expectation exactly, and the AZ margin is close to the polling average.

Considering that polling is sparse in Okalahoma/Arkansas/Montana, maybe we have to suspend our disbelief for this crazy 2016.

Oklahoma and Arkansas are along with West Virginia the quintessential Trump states.
It's no coincidence that they trended sharply Republican during the Obama years.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2016, 02:35:37 pm »

Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

If these states' senate races were competitive then I'm pretty sure she would contest them more vigorously.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 02:18:56 pm »

@markzbarabak

More evidence Arizona is in play: Fresh-out-of-the-field poll by GOP firm @azhighground shows Clinton +2, suggesting effectively a toss-up.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2016, 03:10:42 pm »

https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.

Why do Republicans think that the Iran deal is a silver bullet against Democrats?
Unless there is an abnormal number of Orthodox Jews in the district this seems like a non-issue for most voters.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2016, 01:06:09 pm »

Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2016, 06:31:27 am »


Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.



Of course, a man without principles is always a valuable commodity among the Republican donor class.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2016, 05:11:30 pm »


Is this result for the district or statewide?
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2016, 05:15:01 pm »

Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 11:40:51 am »

Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2016, 11:57:28 am »

Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.

Maybe you make one stop, but not five. Check out some of the Youtube clips from the 1988 election and you'll see Trump is throwing spaghetti at the wall in a similar way

I agree with you. I don't get what kind of campaign stops will be these, 5 states in a few hours with a lot of time wasted in travel, I doubt he will be able to stay more than a few minutes at every stop. Seems like a waste of money and energy.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2016, 04:23:28 pm »

Trump campaign's internal polling is an oxymoron.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2016, 01:43:44 am »

John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

b-b-ut I thought the Comey letter had no effect!

Tom Jensen of PPP and some other Democratic pollsters on twitter said that the Comey letter had no significant impact on their numbers.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
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