Vosem
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Posts: 15,637
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: October 17, 2016, 11:08:55 PM » |
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Per piecing together Kraushaar's replies to people, Republicans lead in 6 of the 7 races within the margin of error; the one where the Democrat leads is NV. The 6 races in question seem to be PA/NH/NC/IN/MO/FL; he repudiates someone suggesting Wisconsin saying that's not within the margin of error. Presumably Democrats are therefore pretty safely up in Illinois and Wisconsin.
So...Republican internal polling is suggesting that if the election were right now, the Democrats would gain only 2 Senate seats (IL/WI), but that with even a small push they would gain 8 (those two, plus MO/IN/NC/PA/NH/FL; he notes that the Democrats are putting up the weakest effort in FL, so presumably it would be last to flip). That would be enough to make anyone panicky.
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