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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Internal poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal poll megathread  (Read 61101 times)
Yank2133
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« on: October 21, 2016, 08:34:40 pm »

Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

He isn't talking about a swing state, he talking about the election in general.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2016, 11:09:46 am »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2016, 12:27:10 pm »

I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.

Maybe not.  It might be a subtle way of distancing themselves from Trump without explicitly disavowing him, which would cause problems with his base.  This sends the message that Trump is going to lose, with the implicit point that GOP voters need to stick with their down-ballot candidates to act as a check on President Clinton.

I would agree with this if the numbers they were providing weren't so dire. I mean they are saying that Trump is down double digits in NH and PA, it almost impossible for Ayotte and Toomey to overcome that.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2016, 11:37:44 am »

"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 10:38:47 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 10:43:02 am by Yank2133 »

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This was obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 01:47:45 pm »

Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP Tongue

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 02:57:18 pm »

Quote
top GOP pollster #2: erosion for HRC, but on track for 3-pt pop-vote win. "weird things might increase EV lead: winning AZ, Trump losing UT"

The Arizona dream still lives!
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Yank2133
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 07:50:16 pm »

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2016/11/trump-for-ny-poll-shows-a-much-closer-race-in-ny/

Trump internal has Clinton up 49-38 in New York, after doing a push question.

"Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”

What a joke.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 07:53:45 pm »

Hillary has rarely hit the upper 50s in a NY poll, so it's not impossible Trump could hit 40% there, though unlikely.

I am talking about the question.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 12:20:36 pm »

gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.

Some internals had him down double digits a week ago.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 07:13:09 pm »

lol.

It isn't in play, just like NH isn't in play. The man has no path to 270 and is throwing sh**t at the wall to see what sticks.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 12:42:17 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 12:44:46 pm by Yank2133 »

@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

It is all about TrumpTV.

He would lose credibility if he gets blown out worse then Mitt.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2016, 03:14:13 pm »

Charles GasparinoVerified account
‏@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll  @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness

Uhhhh...didn't they fire their pollster?

Lol, I love how they leak this as if it is good news.

If he is losing FL, then he has lost the election.
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