Hypothetical Referendum on the status of Northern Ireland

[ObserverIE]

The most immediate effect of Brexit is that it makes "soft" nationalists, who might previously have voted SDLP or Alliance if they voted at all, less comfortable within Northern Ireland. The more cack-handed that future British policy will be (and the new cabinet and tone of announcements doesn't fill me with much confidence) the more likely it is that those people's consent for living within the UK gets strained and then withdrawn.

Things could survive the Norway option with minimal disruption and grumbling. But if future British policy is for WTO terms only or at best a very loose arrangement, and the noises emanating from Westminster from the likes of Davis imply that, then not only does that imply a severe shock for the Northern economy, but it increases the likelihood of a "hard" border which hasn't been there before, even during the Troubles, and increases the likelihood of violence starting up again.

[ObserverIE]

If Ni were to join ROI, would it cease to exist and join the unitary government of the Republic, or would Ireland become a federal nation (of either the four provinces, or less radically Ulster and RestOfIreland)? If it is a federation, it could keep various British public services, and it would solve the "rule from Dublin" issue.

But yeah, I think it would be quite irresponsible to hold a border poll while sectarian violence is still quite likely to flare up. I don't think it would be impossible to see a United Ireland in my lifetime, but I think any scenario involving a 50%+1 vote would not be wise. Better to try and build a case for a United Ireland that prots (by which I don't mean flag activists, but ordinary prots) can accept.

There's provision within the existing Irish constitution for allowing local legislatures which was apparently designed by de Valera to allow Stormont to be "switched" over to being part of an Irish state:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The idea has been floated recently by a SF MEP.

[ObserverIE]

Gully is right that all of this is conditional to a massive extent on whatever happens in Scotland.

That and the post-Brexit situation completely f***ing up large parts of the NI economy (although of course, such a f***-up would inflict considerable collateral damage on the parts of the RoI economy that actually do things other than play around with tax leverage).