UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie !
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Author Topic: UT-04/UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics: 3-way tie !  (Read 1572 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 21, 2016, 01:52:58 AM »
300 LV, July 7-12:

29% Trump
27% Clinton
26% Johnson
  8% Others
10% Undecided

http://www.y2analytics.com

PDF link
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2016, 01:53:48 AM »
Battleground Utah.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2016, 01:53:59 AM »
Go, Johnson/Stein !

Nothing would be better if both trainwrecks Trump and Clinton got only 1/3 of the vote each ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2016, 01:54:37 AM »
BTW, Rep. Mia Love (R) leads 51-36-4 in the poll.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2016, 01:55:39 AM »
Maybe CNN was right to make UT only Lean R.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2016, 01:58:05 AM »
LOL
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2016, 02:01:32 AM »
Favourable ratings:

20-74 Trump
24-72 Clinton

Both have a 99% name recognition.
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Reginald
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2016, 02:04:04 AM »
lol:

Definitely Trump: 14%
Trump, could change mind: 9%
Trump, if I have to choose: 6%

Definitely Clinton: 19%
Clinton, could change mind: 5%
Clinton, if I have to choose: 4%
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2016, 02:07:39 AM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on July 21, 2016, 01:55:39 AM
Maybe CNN was right to make UT only Lean R.

UT-04 is a little bit left of the state as a whole.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2016, 02:12:06 AM »
« Edited: July 21, 2016, 02:20:44 AM by Seriously? »
Johnson support is very weak there. Of the alleged 26%, 9% are firm, the other 17% is soft and, if history is any indicator with third parties, will likely collapse.

UT-4 is also the least Republican-leaning district in the state as far as Cook PVI goes (D+16), which points towards a Trump lead in the state, although a lot closer than it should be.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2016, 05:50:43 AM »
Quote from: Seriously? on July 21, 2016, 02:12:06 AM
UT-4 is also the least Republican-leaning district in the state as far as Cook PVI goes (D+16), which points towards a Trump lead in the state, although a lot closer than it should be.
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SherlockHound
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2016, 06:54:09 AM »
It would make me so happy if Gary Johnson somehow pulls out a state.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2016, 06:57:27 AM »
A Romney endorsement will do wonders for Johnson. It could deny Trump a precious 6EV.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2016, 06:57:56 AM »
I can't take this election anymore. This entire cycle has been an outlier
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Skye
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2016, 07:54:05 AM »
Johnson at 26? That's super high. He hasn't gotten numbers like that in other Utah polls.
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Redban
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« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2016, 08:18:46 AM »
Quote from: SherlockHound on July 21, 2016, 06:54:09 AM
It would make me so happy if Gary Johnson somehow pulls out a state.

Quote from: yeah_93 on July 21, 2016, 07:54:05 AM
Johnson at 26? That's super high. He hasn't gotten numbers like that in other Utah polls.

Quote from: Interlocutor on July 21, 2016, 06:57:56 AM
I can't take this election anymore. This entire cycle has been an outlier

Quote from: RJEvans on July 21, 2016, 06:57:27 AM
A Romney endorsement will do wonders for Johnson. It could deny Trump a precious 6EV.

This poll, I believe, represents one district in Utah (UT-04), not the whole state. Therefore, this poll doesn't bespeak anything about Johnson's chances in Utah, about Hillary's chances in Utah, or about Trump's vulnerability in Utah.
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Skye
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« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2016, 08:38:51 AM »
Quote from: Redban on July 21, 2016, 08:18:46 AM
Quote from: SherlockHound on July 21, 2016, 06:54:09 AM
It would make me so happy if Gary Johnson somehow pulls out a state.

Quote from: yeah_93 on July 21, 2016, 07:54:05 AM
Johnson at 26? That's super high. He hasn't gotten numbers like that in other Utah polls.

Quote from: Interlocutor on July 21, 2016, 06:57:56 AM
I can't take this election anymore. This entire cycle has been an outlier

Quote from: RJEvans on July 21, 2016, 06:57:27 AM
A Romney endorsement will do wonders for Johnson. It could deny Trump a precious 6EV.

This poll, I believe, represents one district in Utah (UT-04), not the whole state. Therefore, this poll doesn't bespeak anything about Johnson's chances in Utah, about Hillary's chances in Utah, or about Trump's vulnerability in Utah.
I think I forgot to write the part where I wondered how Johnson was doing in the rest of the state.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2016, 09:21:56 AM »
LOL, Hillary could actually win here.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2016, 09:26:45 AM »
No, Johnson could actually win here.

Don;t get me wrong -- I want Hillary Clinton to win.

With his calls for violence, Donald Trump offends Mormons, a people who tolerate violence only when it is hunting, self-defense, or law enforcement. A Republican convention that sounds like a drunken brawl would offend Mormons.

What will decide Utah? Whom does the Latter-Day Saint (LDS) hierarchy endorse?   
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #19 on: July 21, 2016, 11:03:56 AM »
2012 President:
Candidate / Utah-04 / Utah / Difference
Romney / 67.2% / 72.6% / + 5.4%
Obama / 30.2% / 24.7% / - 5.5%
Others / 2.6% / 2.7% / 0.1%

Applying that %s to the data of this poll:
Trump: 29% --> 34.4%
Clinton: 27% --> 21.5%
Others: 34% --> 34.1%

That's all without undecided.
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OneJ
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« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2016, 07:41:23 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 21, 2016, 01:53:59 AM
Go, Johnson/Stein !

Nothing would be better if both trainwrecks Trump and Clinton got only 1/3 of the vote each ... Tongue

FYI, Stein is a train wreck herself.

Anyways, I find it interesting that a state like Utah that was R+40 just 4 years ago is now a literal battleground.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2016, 06:12:00 AM »
29% Trump
27% Clinton
26% Johnson

How in anyway is this a tie?
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2016, 06:21:29 AM »
Quote from: lok1999 on July 26, 2016, 06:12:00 AM
29% Trump
27% Clinton
26% Johnson

How in anyway is this a tie?

MoE.

But anyway, can Trump really be that bad if he's so unpopular in *this* state? Same can be said for Hillary too probably.
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