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Author Topic: Trump at 42%, Clinton at 41% in CBS Battleground Tracker Poll  (Read 6050 times)
dspNY
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« on: July 24, 2016, 10:20:57 am »

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump support had been at 40% prior to Republican National Convention in Cleveland, CBS News says in its latest Battleground Tracker poll.
Hillary Clinton was unchanged at 41%, CBS says
CBS conducted 2,131 interviews of registered voters in 11 states: Colo., Fla., Iowa, Mi., N.C., N.H., N.Y., Ohio, Pa., Va. and Wis.; survey done via Internet
Respondents contacted before and after Republican convention

New York was not one of the states included in this poll

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2016, 11:14:33 am »

Their battleground sample - interpret as you wish:

White ...................................................................78%

Black ...................................................................11%

Hispanic .................................................................7%

Other .................................................................... 4%

2012 Exit polls by state:

Colorado: 78% W, 3% AA, 14% L, 6% Other
Florida: 67% W, 13% AA, 17% L, 3% Other
Iowa: 93% W, 2% AA, 3% L, 2% Other
Michigan: 77% W, 16% AA, 3% L, 4% Other
N. Carolina: 70% W, 23% AA, 4% L, 3% Other
N. Hampshire: 95% W, 1% AA, 3% L, 1% Other
Nevada: 64% W, 9% AA, 19% L, 9% Other
Ohio: 79% W, 15% AA, 3% L, 3% Other
Pennsylvania: 78% W, 13% AA, 6% L, 3% Other
Virginia: 70% W, 20% AA, 5% L, 5% Other
Wisconsin: 86% W, 7% AA, 4% L, 3% Other

Judging by the size of these states and their demographic compositions the battleground composite should be:

74% W, 13% AA, 9% L, 4% Other
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2016, 11:36:13 am »


Exit Poll 2012 & Total votes

CO: 2.57 Million votes x White 78% = 2.00
FL: 8.47 Million votes x White 67% = 5.67
IA: 1.58 Million votes x White 93% = 1.47
MI: 4.73 Million votes x White 77% = 3.64
NC: 4.50 Million votes x White 70% = 3.15
NH: 0.71 Million votes x White 93% = 0.66
NV: 1.01 Million votes x White 64% = 0.65
OH: 4.50 Million votes x White 79% = 3.55
PA: 5.75 Million votes x White 79% = 4.54
VA: 3.85 Million votes x White 70% = 2.70
WI: 4.73 Million votes x White 86% = 4.07

Total 42.40 Million votes  32.10 Million White voters

32.10 / 42.40 = 75.7%

imo turnouts in 2016 - White: Increase / Black: lower




Population growth in Florida, Nevada, Colorado, NC and population decline in PA, OH, WI, MI would lead to a slightly lower white turnout
« Last Edit: July 24, 2016, 11:40:49 am by dspNY »Logged
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