CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%

[jaichind]

So despite a fairly contractional GOP convention Trump is getting a pretty normal post convention bounce.  Most of this will unwind after this week but this is another sign that Trump will keep it close even if he does not win.

[jaichind]

RCP Clinton vs Trump average just flipped over to Trump (by 0.2%).  Trump's lead in RCP will go up some more this week as some of the early July polls rolls off and the post-bounce polls comes in.  Then this will reverse itself next week.

[jaichind]

Polls go up and polls go down.  It's pretty normal for the Republican candidate to pull ahead after the party's convention.  Hillary will move ahead after the Dem convention next week.

I'll be convinced the race is competitive if Hillary is not ahead outside the margin of error after her convention bounce subsides.

Yep, this sounds fair.