Week after convention. He's going to have a small lead. If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry.
Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012. All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10.
Bush 2004 was up 7-8,
Obama 2008 was up 3-4,
Obama 2012 was up 3-4.
Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought.
As in 2008 and 2012, the polls show a tied race with a narrow Trump advantage following the RNC.
I still believe the June Pew Poll will maintain its putatively prescient record.
