CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45%

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce.

So you think they souped up their poll?

They are nearly as bad as Fox News forgetting Rand Paul and showing Jeb Bush ahead of Hillary with Trump trailing massively before flipping. I'm not buying news organizations who want storylines.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

1) Trump has the working class vote (not just white working class).

False. Education and wealth/class are not all that related, especially in this election.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

What King remarked in the other place was that CNN/ORC apparently thinks white non-college voter turnout is going to swell to match white college educated turnout. To be frank, that seems extremely unlikely to me, but there is no way to know until election day.

From my recollection, it was roughly 50-50 in many GOP primaries (and in fairness, some were 60-40 in exceptional states). I don't know what primaries were in the past, but that seems quite a bit more than you'd expect in a GOP primary. Hard to draw conclusions because many are independents in the former category and Democrats in the latter, but within the GOP for low turnout elections, it was quite strong. I'd need to look at it deeper.

In other news, big education gap….

white college grads:
Clinton 44%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 4%

white non-college grads:
Trump 61%
Clinton 23%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

If these numbers actually pan out, Trump still would lose. He can't lose white college graduates and win, even if he does increase the Republican share of the white non-college graduate vote.

Learn math.