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Author Topic: Landmark Communications/WSB-TV: Georgia - Trump + 2  (Read 1908 times)
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dfwlibertylover
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« on: July 25, 2016, 05:10:50 pm »

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450

Trump - 46
Clinton - 44
Johnson - 5
Stein - 3
« Last Edit: July 25, 2016, 05:25:49 pm by dfwlibertylover »Logged
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2016, 05:14:32 pm »

Georgia is definitely up for grabs. It's a place where the college educated white vote will play a major role.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2016, 05:24:38 pm »

(just edited OP):
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450 here are the crosstabs and such, looks like 500 likely voters were sampled by Rosetta Stone/ Landmark Communications
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2016, 05:26:53 pm »

Has a B on 538, so it's not complete junk, but Hillary shouldn't waste much of any time here.
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2016, 05:28:38 pm »

Well then. This definitely doesn't square with a Trump lead nationally. This is a legit pollster. Actually 1.3% but decimals, I know

Also from the article:

Quote
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Preibus has said he's watching Georgia closely to see if it could become a potential battleground state.
 
The Hillary Clinton campaign has it as a Tier 1 state, just below the true battleground states. New poll numbers show Georgia could be in play.

Priebus is nervous about GA then
« Last Edit: July 25, 2016, 05:31:44 pm by dspNY »Logged
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2016, 05:49:50 pm »

Best news of the day!  Perhaps we can recreate 1992 (when Bill won in Georgia by 13000 votes) all over again.
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2016, 05:55:07 pm »

Best news of the day!  Perhaps we can recreate 1992 (when Bill won in Georgia by 13000 votes) all over again.

Do you think the Atlanta burbs are winnable this time because that's the route to a Dem upset. Usually the Atlanta burbs are much more RW than the burbs in Northern cities, but there are a lot of college-educated GHWB style Repubs there
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2016, 05:59:44 pm »

Georgia is going way of Virginia and North Carolina. It's just going to take longer.
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2016, 06:03:41 pm »

Best news of the day!  Perhaps we can recreate 1992 (when Bill won in Georgia by 13000 votes) all over again.

Do you think the Atlanta burbs are winnable this time because that's the route to a Dem upset. Usually the Atlanta burbs are much more RW than the burbs in Northern cities, but there are a lot of college-educated GHWB style Repubs there

Since 1992, the near Atlanta suburbs have clear swung more Democratic (Douglas, much of Cobb/Gwinnett, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton counties).  And turnout in Fulton/DeKalb/Clayton counties will be key to make this race close.  Important to offset the huge vote Trump will receive in the exurban counties of Forsyth, Hall, Cherokee, Walton--plus rural Georgia.

I remain doubtful that Hillary can win--but making it close indicates a sign that Georgia will be moving from red to purple in the years to come.
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2016, 06:10:04 pm »

Georgia is definitely up for grabs. It's a place where the college educated white vote will play a major role.


Keep telling yourself that.  The same voters that can't get a single liberal policy passed here.    
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2016, 06:11:07 pm »

Cue the Georgia teaser poll..... As predictable as 90 degree days in July in Georgia.

Landmark is eh meh pollster.
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2016, 06:19:19 pm »

New Poll: Georgia President by Landmark Communications on 2016-07-24

Summary: D: 44%, R: 46%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2016, 06:39:02 pm »

Cue the Georgia teaser poll..... As predictable as 90 degree days in July in Georgia.

Landmark is eh meh pollster.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

Except PPP in March of 2012, it was a solid Romney lead the last election, had him winning by at least 7. Landmark polled it May 2012 and found Romney +11. It's troubling for Trump that he's only up 1.3%. She can squeak by with a win here with enough GOP support for Johnson or disaffected Republicans not showing up.
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2016, 06:41:20 pm »

Cue the Georgia teaser poll..... As predictable as 90 degree days in July in Georgia.

Landmark is eh meh pollster.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

Except PPP in March of 2012, it was a solid Romney lead the last election, had him winning by at least 7. Landmark polled it May 2012 and found Romney +11. It's troubling for Trump that he's only up 1.3%. She can squeak by with a win here with enough GOP support for Johnson or disaffected Republicans not showing up.
I know Georgia pretty well. You get these teaser polls all the time that it's possible for a Dem win statewide. Then reality takes over.

Georgia has state-wide pollsters like Michigan. Landmark is not the best of Georgia pollsters, let's leave it at that.
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2016, 06:47:01 pm »

And Dems call PA fool's gold...
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2016, 06:48:05 pm »

Georgia is definitely up for grabs. It's a place where the college educated white vote will play a major role.


Keep telling yourself that.  The same voters that can't get a single liberal policy passed here.    

Ok, we'll see who is right in November. I've quoted this post, so you can't edit or delete it if the results are contrary to what you say.
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« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2016, 06:50:13 pm »

Cue the Georgia teaser poll..... As predictable as 90 degree days in July in Georgia.

Landmark is eh meh pollster.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

Except PPP in March of 2012, it was a solid Romney lead the last election, had him winning by at least 7. Landmark polled it May 2012 and found Romney +11. It's troubling for Trump that he's only up 1.3%. She can squeak by with a win here with enough GOP support for Johnson or disaffected Republicans not showing up.
I know Georgia pretty well. You get these teaser polls all the time that it's possible for a Dem win statewide. Then reality takes over.

Georgia has state-wide pollsters like Michigan. Landmark is not the best of Georgia pollsters, let's leave it at that.

Where were the teaser polls in 2012?

What other Georgia pollsters are there? InsiderAdvantage? They have a C- on 538 and 71% of races called right vs Landmark's B/88%.
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« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2016, 06:59:46 pm »

And Dems call PA fool's gold...

Only difference is that Dems aren't pumping money into Georgia.
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« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2016, 07:11:58 pm »

And Dems call PA fool's gold...

Only difference is that Dems aren't pumping money into Georgia.


But she is advertising here. 

The poll is getting a fair amount of coverage in the Atlanta area today (as WSB is the big local player here).   And it seems to be conducted reasonably well--with a 2/3 white, 1/3 other split.  Trump wins 67-21-6 with whites and Hillary dominating strongly otherwise.

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« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2016, 07:13:11 pm »

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/757712606274711552
http://landmarkcommunications.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/LandmarkRosetta-Stone-Releases-Latest-Georgia-Presidential-Poll.pdf
Done yesterday July 24th, POST RNC
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: July 25, 2016, 07:13:20 pm »

And Dems call PA fool's gold...

Only difference is that Dems aren't pumping money into Georgia.


But she is advertising here. 

The poll is getting a fair amount of coverage in the Atlanta area today (as WSB is the big local player here).   And it seems to be conducted reasonably well--with a 2/3 white, 1/3 other split.  Trump wins 67-21-6 with whites and Hillary dominating strongly otherwise.

She has an ad-buy in the state? When did that happen? Didn't know that.
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« Reply #21 on: July 25, 2016, 07:16:58 pm »

I saw 1 primary ad in Atlanta from her. If an ad was seen in GA recently, it might be Florida leakage?
« Last Edit: July 25, 2016, 07:21:34 pm by HillOfANight »Logged
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« Reply #22 on: July 25, 2016, 07:21:29 pm »

Best news of the day!  Perhaps we can recreate 1992 (when Bill won in Georgia by 13000 votes) all over again.

Do you think the Atlanta burbs are winnable this time because that's the route to a Dem upset. Usually the Atlanta burbs are much more RW than the burbs in Northern cities, but there are a lot of college-educated GHWB style Repubs there

This also applies to college-educated white suburbanites in Texas, too: Donald Trump may be offending their sensibilities as John McCain and Mitt Romney didn't. There is much more room for suburban white voters in greater Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta to trend Democratic than those of Greater Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, or San Francisco.  

Whether white educated people in greater Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston are the anomaly of 2008 and 2012 or the norm to which America will revert is much to be decided this year.

Georgia is a legitimate swing state and Texas is on the fringe of competitiveness this year.  

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« Reply #23 on: July 25, 2016, 07:29:42 pm »

July 25th, 2014: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196202.0

Not saying this is junk, but it's worth noting.
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« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2016, 07:54:03 pm »

July 25th, 2014: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196202.0

Not saying this is junk, but it's worth noting.
How did that Nunn/Perdue race end up?

Oh yeah. 8-point win against the daughter of Georgia political royalty.

So that poll was just off by 12 points. Trump wins Georgia.
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