Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 10, 2019, 08:45:13 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  Rasmussen wasn't that horrible in 2012 as Red Avatars are bashing.
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Rasmussen wasn't that horrible in 2012 as Red Avatars are bashing.  (Read 2197 times)
StatesPoll
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 26, 2016, 05:12:34 am »
« edited: July 26, 2016, 05:15:43 am by StatesPoll »

Final Poll: Rasmussen(Nov 2-4, 2012)  Obama 48%, Romney 49%
Margin of Error(MOE): +-3%
Final Results (Nov 6, 2012)  Obama 51.1%(+3.1%), Romney 47.2%(-1.8%)

1. Obama was on uphill by Sandy (so Obama could add 2~3% during 2-3days)
2. Romney's turnout was worse tha Obama (especially, as exit Poll: Black voter-66%, White voter-64%)


Missread 1.8%~3.1% wasn't that horrible as Red Avatars are bashing Rasmussen everyday.
(unless they did Poll-Plus forecast.)

Especially, TRUMP's turnouts would be much better than Romney for sure.
So in my opinion in 2016, I don't think Rasmussen is overvaluing TRUMP's numbers that much.

It's so weird Red Avatars are always looking down Rasmussen Polls.
(But they never complain of  Ipsos/Reuters Poll, Even when they weight Women 60% - Men 39%
Dem 45% - Rep 31% - Ind 12% in this summer.)


Logged
NeverAgain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2016, 05:16:32 am »

Lies. Ramussen is part of the vast "right-wing conspiracy" sent to destroy us. I will never surrender to you or their inaccurate and awful polls.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,986


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2016, 07:21:06 am »

Uh, we do recognize Reuters' awfulness...
Logged
Nyvin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2016, 07:24:42 am »

Funny how statespoll only shows up when Trump is leading in polls.   
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2016, 07:28:25 am »

I think StatesPoll has people to harass on twitter... and they not care about it.
Logged
Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 394


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2016, 07:40:05 am »

You're citing the national poll alone; what about state polls?

Ohio:
Rasmussen -- Tie
Actual -- Obama 3.0+

Virginia:
Rasmussen -- Romney 2.0+
Actual -- Obama 3.9+

Wisconsin:
Rasmussen -- Tie
Actual -- Obama 6.7+

New Hampshire:
Rasmussen -- Obama 2.0+
Actual -- Obama 5.6+

North Carolina:
Rasmussen -- Romney 6.0+
Actual -- Romney 2.0+

Iowa:
Rasmussen --- Romney 1+
Actual --- Obama 5+

Colorado:
Rasmussen -- Romney 3.0+
Actual -- Obama 5.4+

Nevada:
Rasmussen -- Obama 2.0+
Actual -- Obama 6.7+


Logged
StatesPoll
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2016, 08:25:36 am »
« Edited: July 26, 2016, 08:27:14 am by StatesPoll »

You're citing the national poll alone; what about state polls?

1. Ohio : Not that bad (Margin of Error)
2. Virginia: Obama- a little bit outlier. Romney: Margin of error
3. Wisconsin: horrible. I admit.
4. New Hampshire: outlier, but still inside of MOE.
5. North Carolina: Not that bad(Margin of Error) especailly poll was conducted 12 days before election day
6. Iowa: Obama- a little bit outlier, Romney - Margin of error.
7. Colorado:horrible. I admit. But Poll was conducted 8 days before Election Day.
8. Nevada: Not that bad(Margin of Error) and Poll was conducted 15 days before Election Day.

Ohio:
Rasmussen(11/4) -- Tie Obama 49% Romney 49% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual -- Obama 3.0+   Obama 50.7%(+1.7%)  Romney 47.7% (-1.3%)

Virginia:
Rasmussen(11/4) -- Romney 2.0+  Obama 48% Romney 50% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual -- Obama 3.9+  Obama 51.6%(+3.6%)  Romney 47.7% (-2.3%)

Wisconsin:
Rasmussen(10/29) -- Tie   Tie Obama 49% Romney 49% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual -- Obama 6.7+  Obama 52.8%(+3.8%) Romney 45.9%(-3.1%)
Yes about wisconsin they were wrong a lots.


New Hampshire:
Rasmussen(11/4) -- Obama 2.0+  Obama 48% Romney 50% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual -- Obama 5.6+   Obama 52%((+4%) Romney 46.4%(-3.6%)


North Carolina:
Rasmussen(10/25) -- Romney 6.0+   Obama 46% Romney 52%
Actual -- Romney 2.0+  Obama 48.4%(+2.4%) Romney 50.4%(+1.6%)
Especially this poll was conducted at 10/25. 12 days gap with Election day.



Iowa:
Rasmussen(10/30) --- Romney 1+  Obama 48% Romney 49%
Actual --- Obama 5+   Obama 52%(+4%) Romney 46.3%(-2.7%)
This Poll was conducted at 10/29. 8 days before Election Day.


Colorado:
Rasmussen(10/29) -- Romney 3.0+ Obama 47  Romney 50% (Margin of Error 4%)
Actual --- Obama 5+      Obama 51.5%(+4.5%) Romney (-3.9%)
This Poll was conducted at 10/29. 8 days before Election Day.
(ARG 10/25-28, it was Obama 47% Romney 48%)


Nevada:
Rasmussen(10/23) -- Obama 2.0+   Obama 50% Romney 48% (Margin of Error 3.5%)
Actual -- Obama 6.7+   Obama 52.4%(+2.4%) Romney 45.7%(-2.3%)
This Poll was conducted at 10/23. 145 days before Election Day.
(NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll(10/23-10/24) It was similar with Rasmussen
(Obama 50% Romney 47%)



Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,206
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2016, 08:30:23 am »

Don't overestimate any pollster right now. It's late July, we have more than three months to go.
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,386
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2016, 08:33:07 am »

Not StatePoll again !
This dude is a farce.
Logged
StatesPoll
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2016, 10:29:34 am »


And Rasmussen wasn't that bad about PA/FL/MI/MN, Esp Poll was conducted 2weeks before election day.
(Michigan 5 days before election day)

1. Pennsylvania
Rasmussen 10/24 500LV  Obama 51% Romney 46%  (MOE 4.5%)
Final Results      Obama 52%(+1%) Romney 46.6%(+0.6%)

2. Florida
Rasmussen 10/25  750 LV  Obama 48% Romney 50% (MOE 4%)
Final Results  Obama 50%(+2%) Romney 46.6%(-0.9%)

3. Michigan
Rasmussen 11/1  750 LV  Obama 52% Romney 47%  (MOE 4%)
Final Results  Obama 54.2%(+2.2%) Romney 44.7%(-2.3%)

4. Minnesota
Rasmussen 10/21  500 LV  Obama 51% Romney 46%  (MOE 4.5%)
Final Results  Obama 52.7%(+1.7%) Romney 45.0%(-1.0%)
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,692
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2016, 11:53:49 am »

Sure, call their results good when they got the winner wrong in six states, and consistently had a strong Republican bias, while other pollsters were much closer.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2016, 12:03:17 pm »

They called the wrong winner in 3/8 swing states and weren't even close to the MOV in the others.
Logged
GMantis
Dessie Potter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,743
Bulgaria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2016, 12:37:11 pm »

I've already explained here why your arguments are faulty. It should be added that a poll uses a sample to estimate the opinion of the entire electorate and the margin of error shows how much this estimate may differ. Because this estimate can in no case be the actual results, it can't be simply assumed that its value at the edge of the margin of error closest to the actual results is the correct value of the estimate; it is equally valid to assume that the correct estimate was on the opposite edge of the margin of error. This is why margin of errors are always two equal and opposite values and why any comparisons must be made with the actual estimate
Furthermore, the margin of error is dependent on the number of respondents. If we assumed your logic, a smaller sample with the same results would be even better since it would have a larger margin of error.
Logged
Virginia
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,748
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2016, 12:40:53 pm »

Why even bother with this user? At least before he was just a simple user spinning crap to somehow show it benefits Trump, while ignoring stuff that couldn't be spun. And then upon his initial glorious return, he started attacking users like a childish troll.

His posts are digital garbage, plain and simple.
Logged
RaphaelDLG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,446
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2016, 07:51:42 pm »

Scott Rasmussen looks like he should be an executive at Chick-Fil-A.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC