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Author Topic: VT-VPR: Leahy +39  (Read 1096 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: July 27, 2016, 09:03:38 pm »

Pat Leahy (D, inc.): 62%
Scott Milne (R): 23%

http://digital.vpr.net/post/vpr-poll-issues-races-and-full-results#stream/0
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2016, 09:13:43 pm »

Knew he was just wasting time and money.
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2016, 09:16:50 pm »

B-b-b-b-but muh ultratight 2014 gubernatorial race!
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2016, 09:47:03 pm »

I knew the Vermont race was unwinnable, but I felt like Milne would keep it closer.
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FL-SEN: Rick Scott
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MI-SEN: John James
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2016, 10:52:14 pm »

Bummer. Sad  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2016, 11:17:02 pm »

Bummer. Sad  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.
I know. I miss the old Vermont. I still don't know or understand how it went from being the only state (other than Maine) that never voted for FDR to being basically Commie Paradise.
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Endorsements:
AZ-SEN: Martha McSally
FL-SEN: Rick Scott
IN-SEN: Mike Braun
MI-SEN: John James
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley
MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
NV-SEN: Dean Heller
OH-SEN: Jim Renacci
PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz
WV-SEN: Patrick Morrisey
FL-GOV: Ron DeSantis
OH-GOV: Mike DeWine
TX-GOV: Greg Abbott
WI-GOV: Scott Walker
NH-GOV: Molly Kelly
NH-02: Annie Kuster
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2016, 11:30:05 pm »

Bummer. Sad  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

Well, at least West Virginia has taken its place for you guys. Wink

Anyway, this confirms what I said in the other thread about how 2014 was solely about Shumlin, not Milne.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2016, 08:27:10 am »

Bummer. Sad  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.
I know. I miss the old Vermont. I still don't know or understand how it went from being the only state (other than Maine) that never voted for FDR to being basically Commie Paradise.

I mean, generations have different political views (Newt Gingrich's generation was MUCH more conservative than their parents' in the South), and VT's demographics were quite different then than now.  Its population exploded in the mid-20th Century, mostly from more liberal transplants coming in from NY, MA and CT (I believe there's still a "Take Back Vermont" movement).  In 2000, when Gore won seniors nationwide, he lost them in VT, leading us to believe a lot of the VT Republicans died off rather than abandoning the party.  Combine that with some who got turned off by an increasingly socially conservative GOP, and we've lost the state.

IceSpear, I'm not so sure about that.  As is always pointed out, a gubernatorial race is local, and arguments like "a vote for [Republican] is just a vote for Mitch McConnell" don't hold weight.  I mean, a lot of local control (like county sheriffs) is still controlled by the GOP.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2016, 08:32:36 am »

Bummer. Sad  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

Now you know what NH will look like in 15-20 years. Smiley The Eastern Vermont part of NH is too much for the GOP to overcome.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2016, 09:49:52 am »

Bummer. Sad  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

Now you know what NH will look like in 15-20 years. Smiley The Eastern Vermont part of NH is too much for the GOP to overcome.

Is the eastern part growing any faster than the Republican Boston suburbs...?
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2016, 10:38:14 am »

Bummer. Sad  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

Now you know what NH will look like in 15-20 years. Smiley The Eastern Vermont part of NH is too much for the GOP to overcome.

Is the eastern part growing any faster than the Republican Boston suburbs...?

I honestly don't know (leaning no), but does it really matter? Republicans need to win the 1st district by a much wider margin in order to win statewide. It's the NH natives (especially women) that have trended strongly Democratic in the past two decades. IIRC, Scott Brown even won MA transplants in 2014. While I admit that Trump will keep NH closer than Romney in a close election, it's impossible to see how he could win the state. He has a much better chance of winning Maine's second district, where there's no "Vermontification" going on.

The same Democratic trend is also happening in VT, Western MA and parts of Upstate NY.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2016, 10:40:37 am by TN volunteer »Logged

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RINO Tom
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2016, 11:00:38 am »

Bummer. Sad  Very different state than it was even 15 years ago.

Now you know what NH will look like in 15-20 years. Smiley The Eastern Vermont part of NH is too much for the GOP to overcome.

Is the eastern part growing any faster than the Republican Boston suburbs...?

I honestly don't know (leaning no), but does it really matter? Republicans need to win the 1st district by a much wider margin in order to win statewide. It's the NH natives (especially women) that have trended strongly Democratic in the past two decades. IIRC, Scott Brown even won MA transplants in 2014. While I admit that Trump will keep NH closer than Romney in a close election, it's impossible to see how he could win the state. He has a much better chance of winning Maine's second district, where there's no "Vermontification" going on.

The same Democratic trend is also happening in VT, Western MA and parts of Upstate NY.


I'm not commenting on the prospects of Republicans winning there, I'm questioning whether NH is headed toward the kinds of margins we see in VT, which would necessitate the Democratic rural areas far outgrow the Republican suburbs.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2016, 11:40:57 am »

I'm not commenting on the prospects of Republicans winning there, I'm questioning whether NH is headed toward the kinds of margins we see in VT, which would necessitate the Democratic rural areas far outgrow the Republican suburbs.

Almost certainly not, unless the Boston suburbs/NH-01 trend Democratic as fast as NH-02. My guess is that it will be 58/42 D/R state in 10-15 years.
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2016, 04:58:56 pm »

Leahy is gonna win huge no surprise here. As a side not does anybody else think he seems a tad senile when he talks? I expected him to retire.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2016, 06:53:17 pm »

If this were an open race, I think we'd see more of a generic IL/CT result.
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« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2016, 05:18:40 pm »

It's this close?
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2016, 05:56:00 pm »

It's this close?

Likely D
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