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| | |-+  PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
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Author Topic: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9  (Read 2362 times)
JRP1994
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« on: July 28, 2016, 11:09:19 am »
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https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/758692937593225216

Clinton: 46
Trump: 37
Johnson: 5
Stein: 3

Clinton: 50
Trump: 41
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Castro
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2016, 11:10:57 am »
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Yeah, PA is not voting to the right of OH. Keep chasing that fools gold though.
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2016, 11:11:39 am »
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inb4 Trumpsters call this junk, while buying all of the Trump friendly polls here.
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Horus
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2016, 11:12:01 am »
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Finally some good news.
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2016, 11:12:52 am »
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Great poll! Could be an extra convention bump though as the DNC will get more press in PA than anywhere else. We'll use everything we can get
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2016, 11:13:40 am »
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Dayum...
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2016, 11:15:28 am »
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Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.
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Castro
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2016, 11:17:05 am »
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Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.

That part is pretty suspect.
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swf541
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2016, 11:17:45 am »
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Nice
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King Louis XV
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2016, 11:18:57 am »
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Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.
I agree with you.

PPP is polling PA this week end, we will know more about this race next week.
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2016, 11:19:18 am »
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Great news. This week has been quite alright Smiley
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2016, 11:19:31 am »
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Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.

If politics are really that polarized, why would we expect the Dem senate candidate to be more than a couple points off the presidential... Feingold and Clinton are very close in Marquette's WI polls... why isn't that seen as "garbage".
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King Louis XV
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2016, 11:21:15 am »
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Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.

If politics are really that polarized, why would we expect the Dem senate candidate to be more than a couple points off the presidential... Feingold and Clinton are very close in Marquette's WI polls... why isn't that seen as "garbage".
I think his point was that Mcginty shouldn't be so high, so Clinton as well with polarization.

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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2016, 11:24:18 am »
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Lets wait for PPP's PA numbers. I don't doubt that Clinton is getting a convention bounce right now, but there's no way she's up 9. Keep in mind that Suffolk also found Clinton ahead of Trump in Ohio during the RNC.
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swf541
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2016, 11:26:40 am »
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Lets wait for PPP's PA numbers. I don't doubt that Clinton is getting a convention bounce right now, but there's no way she's up 9. Keep in mind that Suffolk also found Clinton ahead of Trump in Ohio during the RNC.

Fair enough, though I do think Clinton is leading in PA and McGinty is at worst tied
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2016, 11:45:51 am »
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Trump should be able to keep it to single digits unlike McCain
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Crumpets
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2016, 11:46:55 am »
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"I guess somebody's gonna have to suck the Big Dog's dick."
-Jon Stewart
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Ebsy
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2016, 11:49:14 am »
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Obviously I am interested in PPP's numbers, but this isn't the only poll to show Pennsylvania not particularly close.
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Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2016, 11:50:44 am »
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1.McGinty was up by 3% in the last PA poll from Marist, not exactly a junk pollster.
2.Suffolk's OH poll had them tied in a 2 way 44-44, which is almost exactly what PPP showed a few days later (45-45).

Great poll. Perhaps the Luzerne fascists won't give the election to Trump after all.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2016, 11:51:59 am »
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Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2016, 11:54:25 am »
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Maybe the small sample size?
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dirks
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« Reply #21 on: July 28, 2016, 11:55:01 am »
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GOP has been chasing the dragon in PA for a while. Trump won't win it. Best chance was 2004 and even Bush couldn't pull it off then with a highly organized well run campaign and fully united party.
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« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2016, 11:58:17 am »
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Glorious news! This means the 269-269 Trump-Kaine map is still alive! Glad to see the SEPA Catholics pulling together to make this a true possibility.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2016, 11:59:58 am »
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Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus

The weights vary depending on the model. In the now-cast, this poll has a weight of 2.5. Also, this poll single-handedly moved the NATIONAL now-cast by nearly 6 points.  
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« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2016, 12:04:16 pm »
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Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus

Nate gets more traffic (and as revenue) if he shows Trump winning.
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