PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9

[Podgy the Bear]

Trump should be able to keep it to single digits unlike McCain

But for Trump to lose Pennsylvania (especially after everyone is touting his huge appeal to the state's electorate) would be a big blow to the Rust Belt strategy--really the only viable option.  With Virginia off the table, losing Pennsylvania means there's very little left for Trump (Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin) to pull it out.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, Nate gives this poll HALF the weight of a month-old Gravis poll! What a fraud this loser is!

[Tender Branson]

Poll was done from Mon. to Wed. this week, so this might include some sort of bump for Hillary already.

Plus, Kaine has good favourable ratings - which might help Hillary there.

On the other hand, Suffolk is not really a solid pollster.

I'd wait another month to get a better picture.

Also, Bernie having a 60-29 favourable rating ...

[Gass3268]

If these numbers on people's opinion on Muslims and Trump's ban are even close to correct, I think he jumped the shark.

[heatcharger]

Wow, Nate gives this poll HALF the weight of a month-old Gravis poll! What a fraud this loser is!

He used to be highly respectable, but now he has his ESPN overlords to worry about, so he's keeping up the horse race narrative for ad revenue. Sad!

[DrScholl]

The suburbs are critical in Pennsylvania and that is where the statewide vote is decided. Trump is a really terrible fit for suburban voters.

[EliteLX]

Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

[Gass3268]

I think after Marist and Suffolk, we can declare that Quinnipiac poll was a "junk poll!"

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus

Wow, Nate gives this poll HALF the weight of a month-old Gravis poll! What a fraud this loser is!

Wow, Nate gives this poll HALF the weight of a month-old Gravis poll! What a fraud this loser is!

He used to be highly respectable, but now he has his ESPN overlords to worry about, so he's keeping up the horse race narrative for ad revenue. Sad!

Calm down, hacks! Their model gives less weight to the polls conducting during/directly after conventions. Take a look at nationals polls. New polls, where Trump leads are getting very little weight as well.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/#plus

So for example CBS News/New York Times polls from JUL. 22-24 is getting less weight than their poll from    JUL. 8-12

[IceSpear]

Dominating!

It's worth noting that this poll is much more consistent with PA's party registration statistics than the Quinnipiac poll was.

This looks like a convention bounce, particularly with Hillary's improved favorabilities (44-48) and most people saying she shouldn't have been indicted. McGinty only running 2 behind Hillary seems a bit sketchy though. Marist had Hillary up 9 as well with McGinty running 6 behind, which looked a lot more realistic.

So where are the concern trolls like ProgressiveCanadian and the right wing trolls who were gloating a few days ago? Please guys, lrn2politics.

[IceSpear]

Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

No they won't. Just like Democrats had no reason to panic from any of these polls in the last week.

If there's similar numbers in a few weeks, then you're correct.

I think after Marist and Suffolk, we can declare that Quinnipiac poll was a "junk poll!"

That was already obvious, lol. PA voting to the right of OH is comical.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Huge poll

[Brittain33]

Suffolk is the Gold Standard

[pbrower2a]

New normal or an outlier? Good question. Which Party solved more of its problems in its convention?

I think we are going to see more polls in which someone cracks 50% or both crack 45%.

Holding the Convention in the state is unlikely to result in the swing of that state.

"Likely voters" will reflect a midterm result.  In Pennsylvania, Democrats operate the GOTV drives to ensure that more than the "likely voters" come out to vote. 

[pbrower2a]

Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.

That part is pretty suspect.

Not if Senator Pat Toomey has to depend upon a strong performance by the Republican nominee in the Presidential election. I expect that there will be more Toomey-and-Clinton voters than Trump-and-McGinley voters...

Does the re-election of Senator Pat Toomey depend upon a strong Republican vote? He barely got elected in the Republican wave of 2010, and if he needs a Republican wave to get re-elected, then he is cooked in this election.

As in 2008 and 2012, partisan realities can solidify after the Conventions. It is my gut feeling that while the Republicans solidified their base they did not strengthen themselves much outside that base. Democrats probably had a stronger outreach beyond their base -- if this poll reflects reality.

Approval ratings for Pat Toomey have been low. I doubt that he has hitched his star to Donald Trump, a risky proposition for someone with some political caution.   He will get more votes in Pennsylvania than Donald Trump, but he can also still lose. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

OH THANK GOD

[HAnnA MArin County]

But muh angry white working class/trend R whites in Pennsylvania!

[dspNY]

It might be a double digits lead for Hillary next week in PA because the convention's press will be positive

[Sir Mohamed]

Still early, but I'm sure that PA won't be as close as expected. Hillary will win by more than five points. I'm so sure that I bet 100$ on it with my neighbor, who is a Trump supporter.

[Illiniwek]

Yeeeee this is a good sign. I look forward to seeing the DNC bump polls over this next week.

[Badger]

Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

[Hammy]

Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

When are the PPP polls released?

[JerryArkansas]

Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

When are the PPP polls released?

It runs the weekend, and they are also releasing a national poll as well.  So maybe Wednesday, Friday at latest.

[windjammer]

Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

When are the PPP polls released?

Tuesday or Wednesday I guess.

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Suffolk University on 2016-07-27

Summary: D: 50%, R: 41%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details