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Author Topic: MO-Mason-Dixon: Trump down 1 BEFORE the DNC  (Read 3004 times)
heatcharger
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« on: July 29, 2016, 07:46:02 am »

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-clinton-in-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_ecbca03a-ea36-5bef-bf8c-fcb817cc7c31.html

http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/e/a9/ea922fa3-95f2-55e3-a1df-5ce1ab4e2a2f/579a6a9a2b00d.pdf.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 9
Stein 1

Poll was conducted from July 23-24. 625 LV
« Last Edit: July 29, 2016, 07:48:00 am by heatcharger »Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2016, 07:57:07 am »

lol
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2016, 08:07:10 am »



Img
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amdcpus
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2016, 08:12:14 am »

Lol at Stein
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2016, 08:14:55 am »

Hopefully it's true.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2016, 08:23:55 am »

Earth shattering. Let's send Obama to St. Louis Smiley
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michelle
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2016, 08:26:14 am »

I'm confused. Some polls show MO likely R, some show it as a tossup. What should I believe?
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Dumbo
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2016, 08:27:10 am »

Trump national + 7, Missouri - 1
I don`t get it ...
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heatcharger
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2016, 08:29:09 am »

Trump national + 7, Missouri - 1
I don`t get it ...


Neither are accurate. Trump was up 3 at most after the RNC.

This just shows the stupidity of polling right between two conventions, you're not gonna get accurate results.
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IndyRep
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2016, 08:38:32 am »

I'm confused. Some polls show MO likely R, some show it as a tossup. What should I believe?

If MO is a Tossup, Clinton is ahead in IN/GA/MS/AZ/AK. The high Johnson support hurts Trump in GOP states with a high minority population.
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2016, 08:50:05 am »

Mason-Dixon is trash, guys. I'm not believing it until someone good shows similar things.
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michelle
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« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2016, 08:51:11 am »

I'm confused. Some polls show MO likely R, some show it as a tossup. What should I believe?

If MO is a Tossup, Clinton is ahead in IN/GA/MS/AZ/AK. The high Johnson support hurts Trump in GOP states with a high minority population.

Okay, then, MO is a tossup.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2016, 08:51:56 am »

Mason-Dixon is trash, guys. I'm not believing it until someone good shows similar things.

Lest we forget the notorious Florida poll from 2012.

I don't buy this.
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SherlockHound
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2016, 09:12:26 am »

I don't believe this for a second.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2016, 09:17:36 am »

I'd like to believe it, but can't be taken seriously. Especially in conjunction with the national polls. If Hillary were up ten points nationalwide, yes. But not with a virtual tie as of now.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2016, 09:17:49 am »

I love Missouri. But it's a Lean R state at the best.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2016, 10:02:08 am »

If this were during the DNC, maybe I could buy it (though I would be taking a wait and see approach until we got more data).  But before the DNC?  At the height of Trump's convention bounce?  Color me very, very skeptical.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2016, 10:14:25 am »

lol, toss it.

538 adjusted it to Trump +1 FWIW.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2016, 10:16:57 am by Pessimistic Antineutrino »Logged
Never Beto
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« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2016, 10:26:04 am »

Who cares about these polls with both under 45%...we all know MO will go for Trump by a solid margin in the end.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2016, 10:48:31 am »

Yeah, not happening unless Hillary is winning by an Obama '08 margin.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2016, 10:53:26 am »

It's not out of the question that Clinton performs at 2008 Obama levels or even better. Trump is terrible.
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wifikitten
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« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2016, 10:59:28 am »

Add most of Johnsons support to Trump and this poll would be believable.
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Ljube
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« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2016, 11:14:52 am »

I'm confused. Some polls show MO likely R, some show it as a tossup. What should I believe?

Likely R.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #23 on: July 29, 2016, 12:49:08 pm »

This is where the polls should be, but I would take this with a heaping serving of salt.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2016, 01:05:55 pm »

Who cares about these polls with both under 45%...we all know MO will go for Trump by a solid margin in the end.

If Gary Johnson gets 10% of the vote in Missouri, then he will allow Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump to win the state with about 45% of the vote. Democrats have a floor of about 45% in Missouri, and that could be enough to win this time.

I look at the three-way race as the reality this year.   
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