MO-Mason-Dixon: Trump down 1 BEFORE the DNC
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:23:51 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  MO-Mason-Dixon: Trump down 1 BEFORE the DNC
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: MO-Mason-Dixon: Trump down 1 BEFORE the DNC  (Read 4085 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 29, 2016, 07:46:02 AM »
« edited: July 29, 2016, 07:48:00 AM by heatcharger »

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-clinton-in-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_ecbca03a-ea36-5bef-bf8c-fcb817cc7c31.html

http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/e/a9/ea922fa3-95f2-55e3-a1df-5ce1ab4e2a2f/579a6a9a2b00d.pdf.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 9
Stein 1

Poll was conducted from July 23-24. 625 LV
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2016, 08:07:10 AM »



Logged
amdcpus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 307
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2016, 08:12:14 AM »

Lol at Stein
Logged
MasterJedi
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,551
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2016, 08:14:55 AM »

Hopefully it's true.
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2016, 08:23:55 AM »

Earth shattering. Let's send Obama to St. Louis Smiley
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2016, 08:26:14 AM »

I'm confused. Some polls show MO likely R, some show it as a tossup. What should I believe?
Logged
Dumbo
Rookie
**
Posts: 210
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2016, 08:27:10 AM »

Trump national + 7, Missouri - 1
I don`t get it ...
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2016, 08:29:09 AM »

Trump national + 7, Missouri - 1
I don`t get it ...


Neither are accurate. Trump was up 3 at most after the RNC.

This just shows the stupidity of polling right between two conventions, you're not gonna get accurate results.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2016, 08:50:05 AM »

Mason-Dixon is trash, guys. I'm not believing it until someone good shows similar things.
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2016, 08:51:11 AM »

I'm confused. Some polls show MO likely R, some show it as a tossup. What should I believe?

If MO is a Tossup, Clinton is ahead in IN/GA/MS/AZ/AK. The high Johnson support hurts Trump in GOP states with a high minority population.

Okay, then, MO is a tossup.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2016, 08:51:56 AM »

Mason-Dixon is trash, guys. I'm not believing it until someone good shows similar things.

Lest we forget the notorious Florida poll from 2012.

I don't buy this.
Logged
SherlockHound
Newbie
*
Posts: 8
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2016, 09:12:26 AM »

I don't believe this for a second.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2016, 09:17:36 AM »

I'd like to believe it, but can't be taken seriously. Especially in conjunction with the national polls. If Hillary were up ten points nationalwide, yes. But not with a virtual tie as of now.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2016, 09:17:49 AM »

I love Missouri. But it's a Lean R state at the best.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,594
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2016, 10:02:08 AM »

If this were during the DNC, maybe I could buy it (though I would be taking a wait and see approach until we got more data).  But before the DNC?  At the height of Trump's convention bounce?  Color me very, very skeptical.
Logged
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,896
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2016, 10:14:25 AM »
« Edited: July 29, 2016, 10:16:57 AM by Pessimistic Antineutrino »

lol, toss it.

538 adjusted it to Trump +1 FWIW.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,611
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2016, 10:26:04 AM »

Who cares about these polls with both under 45%...we all know MO will go for Trump by a solid margin in the end.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2016, 10:48:31 AM »

Yeah, not happening unless Hillary is winning by an Obama '08 margin.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,930
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2016, 10:53:26 AM »

It's not out of the question that Clinton performs at 2008 Obama levels or even better. Trump is terrible.
Logged
user12345
wifikitten
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,135
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2016, 10:59:28 AM »

Add most of Johnsons support to Trump and this poll would be believable.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2016, 11:14:52 AM »

I'm confused. Some polls show MO likely R, some show it as a tossup. What should I believe?

Likely R.
Logged
Simfan34
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2016, 12:49:08 PM »

This is where the polls should be, but I would take this with a heaping serving of salt.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2016, 01:05:55 PM »

Who cares about these polls with both under 45%...we all know MO will go for Trump by a solid margin in the end.

If Gary Johnson gets 10% of the vote in Missouri, then he will allow Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump to win the state with about 45% of the vote. Democrats have a floor of about 45% in Missouri, and that could be enough to win this time.

I look at the three-way race as the reality this year.   
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 29, 2016, 02:07:25 PM »

Who cares about these polls with both under 45%...we all know MO will go for Trump by a solid margin in the end.

If Gary Johnson gets 10% of the vote in Missouri, then he will allow Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump to win the state with about 45% of the vote. Democrats have a floor of about 45% in Missouri, and that could be enough to win this time.

I look at the three-way race as the reality this year.   

Only in your mind.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2016, 02:31:02 PM »

You'll all have to pardon my skepticism about this
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 14 queries.