AZ-IWS: Trump +8
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Author Topic: AZ-IWS: Trump +8  (Read 3836 times)
JRP1994
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« on: July 29, 2016, 10:31:16 PM »
« edited: July 29, 2016, 10:55:24 PM by Likely Voter »
http://data.workwithiws.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/IWS-Arizona-POTUS-General.pdf

Trump: 49% (48.8 )
Clinton: 41% (41.3 )
Johnson: 3%
Stein: 1%
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2016, 10:36:10 PM »
Let's wait for the Democratic bump to kick in to see how things level out.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2016, 10:38:32 PM »
How many times do I need to post this? Please just post the toplines of the poll in the thread subject and save any "analysis"  for the body.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2016, 10:43:03 PM »
This would be consistent with a very close race. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona ended up quite close if Clinton wins by a decent margin.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2016, 10:45:01 PM »
Who is this pollster?
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2016, 10:47:31 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2016, 10:49:47 PM by psychprofessor »
junk pollster, no cross tabs, all IVR...let's wait for something credible
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2016, 11:05:09 PM »
oh cool a one-night IVR poll! Roll Eyes
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2016, 11:41:53 PM »
About what you'd expect to see, plus third parties at believable levels. I like this poll.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2016, 12:15:46 AM »
I changed the headline. Again please keep headlines to just the facts with the actual numbers or the margin.
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dspNY
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« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2016, 12:43:37 AM »
Interestingly, NBC is reporting that Pence will go to Arizona next week
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2016, 12:55:00 AM »
"Polling was conducted using a clustered IVR approach and results were
weighted to reflect the perceived electorate based on past presidential
election trends in Arizona. "

Why should we expect the electorate to mirror "past presidential election trends" in Arizona? I think polls that rely upon "voter files" are usually the most reliable but there are instances in which they have been miserable failures. In the event of a surge in voter registration and concomitantly high voter turnout, a reliance upon a voter file to create a universe of "likely voters" will almost certainly fail because irregular/new voters will compose a large share of the electorate.

How I know this poll is garbage: Donald Trump's favorables are far too high.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2016, 02:04:37 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on July 30, 2016, 01:09:57 AM
Quote from: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 30, 2016, 12:55:00 AM
"Polling was conducted using a clustered IVR approach and results were
weighted to reflect the perceived electorate based on past presidential
election trends in Arizona. "

Why should we expect the electorate to mirror "past presidential election trends" in Arizona? I think polls that rely upon "voter files" are usually the most reliable but there are instances in which they have been miserable failures. In the event of a surge in voter registration and concomitantly high voter turnout, a reliance upon a voter file to create a universe of "likely voters" will almost certainly fail because irregular/new voters will compose a large share of the electorate.

How I know this poll is garbage: Donald Trump's favorables are far too high.

I don't know.  Hope you're right, but that's precisely the scenario that should keep us up at night.

As it turns out, I was wrong. I forgot to check the national polling aggregators; Trump's favorables have surged over the past weak from -25 to -15. Therefore, the poll probably makes a degree of sense.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2016, 04:00:08 AM »
lol

less than McCain's margin

less than Romney's margin
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2016, 06:32:52 AM »
Quote from: Maxwell on July 30, 2016, 04:00:08 AM
lol

less than McCain's margin

less than Romney's margin

But close.

Such is consistent with the results of the  Presidential races of 2008 and 2012, at least in Arizona. If one wants to see Donald Trump win, then such is bad news at this stage.  Trump must win Arizona; Hillary Clinton, like all Democrats since Harry Truman, can get away with losing Arizona.

But let's remember: Hillary Clinton has the Obama machine, the slickest Presidential campaign machine since that of at least Ronald Reagan, behind her. She trusts that campaign apparatus, one that Barack Obama gave the prerogative to say no to some quixotic attempt to win a State that he had little chance to win and that would put other states at risk of loss. 

2008 and 2012 races just after the latter Party convention looked close. They did not look like the end result.  Obama gained. He turned the race into one best described as a long-shot for a Republican victory and practically compelled McCain and Romney to make high-cost gambles to improve their chances.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2016, 06:37:18 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 30, 2016, 06:35:29 AM
Trump +8 in a battleground state after the DNC? Cool.
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 30, 2016, 06:35:29 AM
Trump +8 in a battleground state after the DNC? Cool.
arizona beïng a battleground state? cool.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2016, 07:45:03 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 30, 2016, 06:35:29 AM
Trump +8 in a battleground state after the DNC? Cool.

Arizona was on the fringe of contention in 2008 and 2012.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2016, 08:06:09 AM »
« Edited: July 30, 2016, 08:22:09 AM by Mehmentum »
A 9 point win in 2012, so some crude extrapolation would suggest that the race is Clinton +5 right now.  If true (and there are a lot of assumptions here, so its very likely not) this would mean a 6 point convention bounce.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2016, 08:24:59 AM »
« Edited: July 30, 2016, 08:27:08 AM by LittleBigPlanet »
Quote from: Mehmentum on July 30, 2016, 08:06:09 AM
A 9 point win in 2012, so some crude extrapolation would suggest that the race is Clinton +5 right now.
But, since we know, that Trump is a horrible mismatch for Arizona, some crude extrapolation would suggest that the race is Trump +5 right now Squinting
If it is true (it's a really big IF), this would mean a negative bounce Angry
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2016, 03:05:13 PM »
Trump below 50 in solid red Arizona, BAD NEWS!
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dspNY
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« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2016, 03:12:02 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on July 30, 2016, 03:05:13 PM
Trump below 50 in solid red Arizona, BAD NEWS!

It's closer than that. Upthread I posted that Pence was making two campaign stops in Arizona. He wouldn't have to be there if it was R+8
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2016, 06:58:10 PM »
     I'm wary of state-level polling around convention time. It seems like these would be even more vulnerable to bounce weirdness.
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Human
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« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2016, 07:48:16 PM »
Don't be surprised at all if Donald Trump ends up winning Arizona by a decent margin on Election Day. Sure, Hispanics will turnout at record levels (thus hurting Trump's chances of victory), but this will easily be made up by anti-immigrant types turning out at record levels.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2016, 10:16:18 PM »
Quote from: (((Rootless cosmopolitan))) on July 30, 2016, 07:48:16 PM
Don't be surprised at all if Donald Trump ends up winning Arizona by a decent margin on Election Day. Sure, Hispanics will turnout at record levels (thus hurting Trump's chances of victory), but this will easily be made up by anti-immigrant types turning out at record levels.

The case could be made these people have already been voting Republican for years.
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« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2016, 10:40:32 PM »
Quote from: heatcharger on July 30, 2016, 10:16:18 PM
Quote from: (((Rootless cosmopolitan))) on July 30, 2016, 07:48:16 PM
Don't be surprised at all if Donald Trump ends up winning Arizona by a decent margin on Election Day. Sure, Hispanics will turnout at record levels (thus hurting Trump's chances of victory), but this will easily be made up by anti-immigrant types turning out at record levels.

The case could be made these people have already been voting Republican for years.

Sure, but the number of retirees keeps rising in AZ, and Trump is beloved among them (esp. the type that moves to AZ).
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heatcharger
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« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2016, 11:06:55 PM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on July 30, 2016, 10:40:32 PM
Quote from: heatcharger on July 30, 2016, 10:16:18 PM
Quote from: (((Rootless cosmopolitan))) on July 30, 2016, 07:48:16 PM
Don't be surprised at all if Donald Trump ends up winning Arizona by a decent margin on Election Day. Sure, Hispanics will turnout at record levels (thus hurting Trump's chances of victory), but this will easily be made up by anti-immigrant types turning out at record levels.

The case could be made these people have already been voting Republican for years.

Sure, but the number of retirees keeps rising in AZ, and Trump is beloved among them (esp. the type that moves to AZ).

Possibly, but faster than the growth rate of the Hispanic population there? I doubt it.
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