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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce) (search mode)
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Author Topic: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)  (Read 2770 times)
pbrower2a
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Posts: 20,978
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« on: July 30, 2016, 02:07:56 pm »

For me to believe this I need corroboration.  That means more polls.

I can see how it happened: the Republicans doubled down on the Trump agenda while the Democrats broadened their support. Democrats may have grabbed two usually-conservative ideas (family values and national security) that conservatives have usually owned.

John Podhoretz, former Ronald Reagan speech writer and Commentary editor:

Take about five paragraphs out of that Obama speech and it could have been a Reagan speech. Trust me. I know.

John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) July 28, 2016

National Review editor Jonah Goldberg:

    Why this convention is better: It's about loving America. GOP convention was about loving Trump. If you didn't love Trump, it offered nada.

    Jonah Goldberg (@JonahNRO) July 29, 2016

Conservative Iowa radio host Steve Deace:

    So most of conservative media and the GOP spent the week rooting for Russia, and now the Democrats get to rally around the flag.

    Dreadful.

    Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) July 29, 2016

Conservative ops veteran Matt Mackowiak

    This Democratic convention has been an unmitigated disaster for the GOP. Very well produced. Unifying. Patriotic. Bravo.#DNCinPHL

    Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) July 29, 2016

Conservative blogger AGConservative:

    Still stunned. Feel like I'm in the twilight zone. Obama just defended America & conservative values from attacks by the Republican nominee.

    (((AG))) (@AG_Conservative) July 28, 2016

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/conservatives-agree-dnc-was-disaster-for-gop

....The worst electoral blowouts happen when either

(1) the incumbent unusually successful in the previous election faces either an unusually-weak nominee as an opponent who runs a muddled campaign (Landon 1936, Willkie 1940, Stevenson 1956, Mondale 1984), is cast successfully as an extremist (Goldwater 1964, McGovern 1972), or emerges from a divisive struggle in which the sleazy side wins the nomination (the 1924 Democratic convention showed the sordid influence of the fascistic KKK).

(2) the incumbent has endured an unmitigated disaster (Hoover, 1932; Carter 1980) or something so perceived at the time (Truman, 1952)

We may be seeing a third category this year. May -- notice the necessary weasel word! It is simply too early to predict that. Wait till you see the results of the 2016 election.
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