Areas in Missouri that Hillary Clinton needs to perform well to win

[Suburbia]

If polls in Missouri, the Show Me State, heats up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, what does she need to do and what areas in Missouri does she need to perform better than President Obama in 2008 and 2012 to win the conservative-leaning state?

[YPestis25]

Definitely the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs. She'd probably need to win Clay and Buchanan counties around KC, and Jefferson county by St. Louis. She'd also need to drive up the margins in Boone, while keeping Trump's numbers down in St. Charles and Greene counties. She'd also want to try to keep the margins decent in the Lead Belt and Bootheel, both of which are almost certainly going for Trump.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The county with Kirksville. That's sort of like some of these counties in central Kentucky with places like Bardstown or Lebanon.

[Ebsy]

The county with Kirksville. That's sort of like some of these counties in central Kentucky with places like Bardstown or Lebanon.

I go to school in Adair County. Obama almost won it in 2008 when he very narrowly lost the state.

But yeah, Clinton will have to win blowouts in St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Jackson County and Boone County while improving with rural Missouri, especially the southeast/bootheel and the northeast. She would need to keep losses in Jefferson, St. Charles, Greene and Clay quite small.

[Nyvin]

In order for Hillary to win I feel like it'd require a significant drop in voter turnout in the religious southwest part of the state,  in conjunction with really good turnout in the two metro areas and Boone county. 

Trump would have to be a big turn off for the evangelicals while Hillary has a really good ground game in the Kansas City and St Louis areas.

[ElectionsGuy]

She needs to drive up the margins in the suburbs of St Louis and Jackson counties, retain Obama's urban margins, and then over perform (not necessarily win) in Republican leaning suburbs in St Charles, Jefferson, Cass, etc. She also needs to outperform Obama in mid-sized cities like Springfield and Columbia. The rest of Missouri is not going to be friendly to Clinton, especially the southeast which I expect to swing to Trump. Overall, its a narrow path that's quite unlikely.

The bellwether county Clinton needs to win by a few points in order to win the state is Clay. If Missouri is competitive at all, watch that county.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

She needs to drive up the margins in the suburbs of St Louis and Jackson counties, retain Obama's urban margins, and then over perform (not necessarily win) in Republican leaning suburbs in St Charles, Jefferson, Cass, etc. She also needs to outperform Obama in mid-sized cities like Springfield and Columbia. The rest of Missouri is not going to be friendly to Clinton, especially the southeast which I expect to swing to Trump. Overall, its a narrow path that's quite unlikely.

The bellwether county Clinton needs to win by a few points in order to win the state is Clay. If Missouri is competitive at all, watch that county.

I was going to do my own response, but this is pretty much correct

[MATTROSE94]

I don't think that Hillary Clinton will carry Missouri when all is said and done, though I expect it to trend heavily towards the Democrats to the point that Donald Trump will only win the state by a 3% margin.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think that Hillary Clinton will carry Missouri when all is said and done, though I expect it to trend heavily towards the Democrats to the point that Donald Trump will only win the state by a 3% margin.

Yeah, I expect the burbs to swing hard to Hillary.

[MATTROSE94]

I don't think that Hillary Clinton will carry Missouri when all is said and done, though I expect it to trend heavily towards the Democrats to the point that Donald Trump will only win the state by a 3% margin.

Yeah, I expect the burbs to swing hard to Hillary.

That's what I was expecting as well. I think that Hillary Clinton will probably pick up Buchanan, Jefferson, St. Genevieve, and Washington counties and over-perform Obama in St. Louis, Jackson, and Boone counties. When all is said and done, Missouri should go to Donald Trump by about a 51-48 margin.

[VPH]

The county with Kirksville. That's sort of like some of these counties in central Kentucky with places like Bardstown or Lebanon.

I go to school in Adair County. Obama almost won it in 2008 when he very narrowly lost the state.

But yeah, Clinton will have to win blowouts in St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Jackson County and Boone County while improving with rural Missouri, especially the southeast/bootheel and the northeast. She would need to keep losses in Jefferson, St. Charles, Greene and Clay quite small.

The problem is that many of the bootheel counties that supported (or nearly did) Obama in 2008 are prme territory for Donald Trump. She needs to perform very well in the suburbs of STL and KC.

[Xing]

Hillary would need huge turnout and a wide margin in Kansas City and St. Louis, while also wining the suburbs. She'd also have to at least improve on Obama's 2012 numbers in the rural areas. It's almost definitely not going to happen.