CCES/YouGov: Clinton +4 and all 50 states

[dspNY]

Clinton 42.9
Trump 39.0
Johnson 4.7
Stein 0.9

84,292 LV interviewed

50 state roundup:

Alabama: Trump +21
Alaska: Trump +0.3 (with Johnson at 12)
Arizona: Trump +8.5
Arkansas: Trump +17.5
California: Clinton +21.4
Colorado: Clinton +5.2 (Johnson at 6)
Connecticut: Clinton +10.8
Delaware: Clinton +19.1
DC: Clinton +73
Florida: Clinton +1.1
Georgia: Trump +4.9
Hawaii: Clinton +26.3
Idaho: Trump +19.5
Illinois: Clinton +15.2
Indiana: Trump +7.2
Iowa: Clinton +3.1
Kansas: Trump +15.9
Kentucky: Trump +20
Louisiana: Trump +11.4
Maine: Clinton +4.7-----Johnson at 8.5, Stein at 3.8
Maryland: Clinton +25.8
Massachusetts: Clinton +22.7
Michigan: Clinton +6
Minnesota: Clinton +6.4
Mississippi: Trump +6
Missouri: Trump +7.5
Montana: Trump +12.4
Nebraska: Trump +12.6
Nevada: Clinton +1.6
New Hampshire: Clinton +8.6
New Jersey: Clinton +12
New Mexico: Clinton +7.1 (Johnson at 11.4)
New York: Clinton +21.3
North Carolina: Clinton +2.2
North Dakota: Trump +12.5
Ohio: Clinton +1.7
Oklahoma: Trump +26.6
Oregon: Clinton +7.8
Pennsylvania: Clinton +1.5
Rhode Island: Clinton +17.8
South Carolina: Trump +11
South Dakota: Trump +18.3
Tennessee: Trump +14.6
Texas: Trump +7.9
Utah: Trump +9.1 (Trump 33, Clinton 24)
Vermont: Clinton +16 (Stein at 5)
Virginia: Clinton +9.1
Washington: Clinton +15.7
West Virginia: Trump +28.3
Wisconsin: Clinton +4.5
Wyoming: Trump +32.8

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20161107_50_1.pdf

[Ronnie]

Save a few (Mississippi, Maine, Vermont, Arizona, probably Alaska) those state numbers are actually quite plausible.

[User157088589849]

I would laugh so hard if Alaska decided who was the next president.

[Rand]

This is the most believable 50-state poll I've seen this year.

[Person Man]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/jDdQm

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Decimals...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nice looking numbers for Clinton.  It's too bad they didn't list McMullin in Utah, but the other four total 80.7 there, so he must be in a fairly distant third.

[Hammy]

Garbage poll if Trump is losing OH/IA.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The CCES is an actual scientific survey that's frequently used by researchers, and their sample size is YUGE. I'd put a lot of weight to this.

Even the bigger States should have sample sizes large enough to be worthwhile.

[HAnnA MArin County]

West Virginia more Republican than Oklahoma? Goodness.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

West Virginia more Republican than Oklahoma? Goodness.

This is surprising? Coal country has been hit hard by the economy lately... of course Clinton has her plan to restore KY/WV, but there's probably so much mistrust of Obama there that Clinton's be lucky to hit 40.

[MasterJedi]

I'll take it.

[pbrower2a]

I doubt that coal will be a significant part of the economic future of either Kentucky or West Virginia.

[Xing]

Better than quite a few swing state polls, but still, OH slightly more Democratic than PA? AZ more Republican than IN?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I doubt that coal will be a significant part of the economic future of either Kentucky or West Virginia.

Agreed, but right now the coal fields are wallowing in unemployment and poverty. Again, Clinton has proposed to dedicate $30 billion to job training and infrastructure in major coal-producing counties, but at this point the Democrats have already spit on them for too long.

[OneJ]

Loving that MS #. Maybe it could be closer than expected.

Trump's not up that much in SC nor AZ though.

Surprisingly believable margins overall.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I would laugh so hard if Alaska decided who was the next president.

Just imagine.

(270-268)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

[Mallow]

I would laugh so hard if Alaska decided who was the next president.

Just imagine.

(270-268)

Or alternately:

272-266

[Seriously?]

Junk poll.