People's Pundit Daily Tracking Poll Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:10:18 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  People's Pundit Daily Tracking Poll Thread
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6
Author Topic: People's Pundit Daily Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 22920 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 31, 2016, 05:12:47 PM »
« edited: August 04, 2016, 01:56:30 PM by Likely Voter »

Never heard of those guys, so take it with a grain of salt.

47% Trump (R)
42% Clinton (D)
4% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

The People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results are based on 3,056 interviews from 7/22/2016 to 7/29/16 (95% confidence interval), are weighted based on demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and based on a likely voter model.



https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2016/07/30/trump-still-leads-clinton-in-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2016, 05:17:16 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2016, 05:19:36 PM by heatcharger »

Junk poll, obviously, but this isn't even post-DNC.

Just looked at their website. This would be like if Breitbart started doing polls.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2016, 05:19:25 PM »

What is this?! :/
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2016, 05:21:09 PM »

I feel like someone on Atlas just made this up.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2016, 05:21:35 PM »

I feel like someone on Atlas just made this up.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2016, 05:28:04 PM »

Please don't bother posting updates on this "poll".
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2016, 06:02:28 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,656


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2016, 06:27:18 PM »

Never heard of those guys, so take it with a grain of salt.

47% Trump (R)
42% Clinton (D)
4% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

The People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll results are based on 3,056 interviews from 7/22/2016 to 7/29/16 (95% confidence interval), are weighted based on demographics from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and based on a likely voter model.



https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2016/07/30/trump-still-leads-clinton-in-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/

No idea who these guys are.

On a very quick look, they appear methodolocally similar to the nbc/survey monkey poll

Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2016, 06:38:10 PM »


So is this literally a surveymonkey poll they just put up on their website?
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2016, 06:38:36 PM »

Can we please make a tracking polls mega thread? k thanks
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2016, 06:39:28 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2016, 06:59:20 PM by Seriously? »

It seems to be a right-wing shop just based on the columnists that they syndicate/use. However, they claim to be accurate.

Does anyone remember them from 2014?

Per their LinkedIn:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/peoples-pundit-daily

It seems like their editor, Richard D. Barris, is a Tea Party member.

From what I can find, his analysis in the Republican cycle of 2014 was pretty much spot on, sans North Carolina Senate and Maryland governor (which no one saw). Obviously, that means he can nail a Republican-friendly cycle. Not sure if that means much of anything though.

http://www.teapartytribune.com/2014/08/17/ppds-2014-senate-projections-dont-bank-on-a-wave-and-gop-doesnt-need-one/

https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/politics/2014/11/06/ppds-big-debut-most-accurate-election-projection-model-of-2014-hands-down/
Logged
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,310


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2016, 12:19:36 AM »

Stein ahead of Johnson?  Junk.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,656


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2016, 08:20:43 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 08:25:11 AM by The Vorlon »


So is this literally a surveymonkey poll they just put up on their website?


Polling is, to put it mildly, in a transition phase.

Given the explosion of social media, the death of land lines, etc "traditional" random digit dialed telephone polling is, if not quite dead, certainly on its last legs.

We're pretty sure something internet based will replace telephone polling, but EXACTLY what that replacement will be is very much a work in progress.

What survey monkey does is a possibility to potentially replace and/or supplement telephone polls.

Survey Monkey is a service that, as most of us know, allows users to upload a list of emails, and get everybody on the list sent an automated internet based survey.

Survey Monkey has thousands of users, and conducts a million+ surveys a week.

"in theory" one could take a small RANDOM selection of the millions of ongoing survey monkey survey takers and then ask them who they are going to vote for.....

If this data was then weighted by age, race, education, gender, geography, etc it would resemble a traditional probability based survey...

This poll, as well as the NBC/Survey monkey poll, try to do what I have outlined above.

I would put the methodology under "experimental", but assuming good quality control it at least has a chance of working.

It overcomes the major concern of most "panel" based internet polls in that it is a (semi) true "random" selection where the person being surveyed did not, at some point "opt in" - at least for the "horse race" part of the survey.



Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2016, 11:11:22 AM »

Today's numbers (Trump +3%)

Trump 46% (-1)
Clinton 43% (+1)
Johnson 5% (+1)
Stein 4% (--)
Undecided 2% (-1)

Decimals (Trump +2.8%)
Trump 45.9% (-.9%)
Clinton 43.1% (+.9%)
Johnson 5.1% (+1.1%)
Stein 4.3% (-.1%)
Undecided 1.6% (-1.0%)
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,452
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2016, 11:25:21 AM »

Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.
Logged
amdcpus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 307
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2016, 11:30:43 AM »

Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.

Benchmark Politics also has incentive to show Clinton winning. A David Brock owned company purchased them and the site creators, who still operate it, are openly pro Hillary. I remember these guys the day they started it, posting it on the Hillary reddit after the 3rd primary. Apostleian and mercury something I believe were their usernames.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2016, 11:35:09 AM »

Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.
This particular group had a pretty good track record in 2014.

I am of the opinion that information is information. You can choose to filter it if you wish. If you look at the trendlines, Hillary! could very well be ahead in the next few days in this poll.

Then your tune will change, of course.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,452
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2016, 11:36:35 AM »

Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.
This particular group had a pretty good track record in 2014.

I am of the opinion that information is information. You can choose to filter it if you wish. If you look at the trendlines, Hillary! could very well be ahead in the next few days in this poll.

Then your tune will change, of course.

No. It won't.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2016, 01:53:08 PM »

Really? Are we going to post and keep updating every single thing that claims it's a poll? Even benchmark politics sacked this.
This particular group had a pretty good track record in 2014.

I am of the opinion that information is information. You can choose to filter it if you wish. If you look at the trendlines, Hillary! could very well be ahead in the next few days in this poll.

Then your tune will change, of course.
No, just like the La times poll, this is trash no matter who is up.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2016, 10:32:22 AM »

August 1 results
Trump 44.8% (-1.1%)
Clinton 43.3% (+.2%)
Johnson 5.9% (+.8%)
Stein 4.2% (-.1%)
Undecided 1.8% (+.2%)

Margin: Trump +1.5 (-1.3%)
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2016, 12:58:05 PM »

As predicted, Hillary! takes the lead (ever so slightly)

8/2 Results
Clinton 44.1% (+.8%)
Trump 43.9% (-.9%)
Johnson 4.9 (-1.0%)
Stein 4.1% (-.1%)
Undecided 3.0% (+1.2%)
Logged
IceAgeComing
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2016, 02:01:06 PM »

never trust polls that report numbers to one decimal place; unless they've polled like 6,000 people or something.  Those points mean literally nothing and its confusing to include them, makes your poll seem more accurate that it really is.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2016, 02:07:58 PM »

Reading their articles, this seems like an extreme Republican hack website.

This daily tracker should be deleted.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2016, 02:20:37 PM »

Reading their articles, this seems like an extreme Republican hack website.

This daily tracker should be deleted.
A data point is a data point as far as I am concerned. I very well know where the source came from and to take it with the requisite amount of skepticism.

These guys may tilt Republican, but their track record in 2014 was nothing to sneeze at. They got everything but North Carolina Senate and Maryland governor correct.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2016, 10:38:08 AM »

8/3 Results
Clinton 44.3% (+.2%)
Trump 43.8% (-.1%)
Johnson 4.9 (+0.1%)
Stein 4.3% (-.2%)
Undecided 2.6% (-.4%)
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 13 queries.