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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  PA-PPP: Clinton +3 in 4-way, +4 in Head to Head
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Author Topic: PA-PPP: Clinton +3 in 4-way, +4 in Head to Head  (Read 2090 times)
Castro
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« on: August 01, 2016, 01:46:31 pm »

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-has-narrow-lead-in-pennsylvania.html#more
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2016, 01:48:12 pm »

So do we take the average of Monmouth, Suffolk, and this to get a better sense of where we're at?
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2016, 01:49:25 pm »

I'll take it. I think the real state of the race in PA is between this and the two polls showing Clinton up 9. We can clearly say the state is Lean D and it looks like the vast majority of the voters are locked in
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2016, 01:50:55 pm »

Quote
Both polls- in Pennsylvania and nationally- PPP has done since the Democratic convention basically suggest that the race is back where it was in June. In late June we had Clinton up 46-42 on Trump head to head in Pennsylvania and 48-44 nationally. Clinton now leads 49-45 in Pennsylvania and 50-45 nationally so it appears everything that happened in the month of July had minimal effect on the margins between Clinton and Trump, it just helped move some undecided partisans skeptical of their party's nominees off the fence and toward the candidates they likely would have ended up with anyway.

Quote
Hillary Clinton's seen a decent improvement in her image over the last couple months in Pennsylvania. At the beginning of June she had a -21 net favorability rating in the state at 35/56, and that's now improved 8 points to -13 at 40/53. Like we saw nationally Trump's had an improvement in his numbers too but it's not as good as Clinton's- he was at -25 at 34/59 in early June and has now shifted up to -20 at 36/56 for a net 5 point improvement.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2016, 01:51:10 pm »

The PPP PA poll coming out this afternoon is a 5 or 6 on the Dem happiness scale, according to them.
I'm going to say up by 4.  Maybe tied with the nation with 5.
Not Bad.  Not great, but better than being down by 4.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2016, 01:52:11 pm »

Quote
Both polls- in Pennsylvania and nationally- PPP has done since the Democratic convention basically suggest that the race is back where it was in June. In late June we had Clinton up 46-42 on Trump head to head in Pennsylvania and 48-44 nationally. Clinton now leads 49-45 in Pennsylvania and 50-45 nationally so it appears everything that happened in the month of July had minimal effect on the margins between Clinton and Trump, it just helped move some undecided partisans skeptical of their party's nominees off the fence and toward the candidates they likely would have ended up with anyway.

Quote
Hillary Clinton's seen a decent improvement in her image over the last couple months in Pennsylvania. At the beginning of June she had a -21 net favorability rating in the state at 35/56, and that's now improved 8 points to -13 at 40/53. Like we saw nationally Trump's had an improvement in his numbers too but it's not as good as Clinton's- he was at -25 at 34/59 in early June and has now shifted up to -20 at 36/56 for a net 5 point improvement.

The most important part is that the undecideds largely lean Dem and are very averse to Trump (although they are averse to her too, they'll likely come home in the end)
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heatcharger
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2016, 01:53:59 pm »

PPP has been consistently releasing results more Republican than average. I'm not saying this is junk, but I don't believe PA is R+1 or R+2. We'll see what Marist and others show after the convention.
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2016, 01:55:15 pm »

Definitely more believable than Q.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2016, 02:02:43 pm »

She's near 50%. Really hard for Trump to win.
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Castro
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2016, 02:04:38 pm »

PPP also had Obama leading Trump by 9 Nationally and has him leading Trump by 7 in PA, further indicating an R+1 or R+2 nature for PA this year.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2016, 02:05:53 pm »

She's near 50%. Really hard for Trump to win.
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Castro
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2016, 02:08:39 pm »

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden?
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 35%
Not sure 13% '

Get this man to PA!
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2016, 02:11:34 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 04:03:15 pm by Seriously? »

She's near 50%. Really hard for Trump to win.
Wrong. Clinton's convention bounce will recede and PA will go back to being a razor-thin margin state. In all, glorious news for Trump!
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Buh her emails!
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2016, 02:20:07 pm »

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden?
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 35%
Not sure 13% '

Get this man to PA!

Uncle Joe to the rescue!!
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Castro
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2016, 02:21:15 pm »

Btw, Senate numbers coming later in the week, possibly tomorrow.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2016, 02:23:07 pm »

This is believable
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Fargobison
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2016, 02:37:42 pm »

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden?
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 35%
Not sure 13% '

Get this man to PA!

The beating Biden would put on Trump had he been the nominee would have been epic.
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dspNY
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2016, 02:45:33 pm »

Age demographics skew old even for PA, one of the oldest states in the country. In 2012, 17% of the PA electorate was 65 or older. PPP has 23% of the electorate as senior citizens.

PPP also projects that 80% of the PA electorate will be white when only 78% of PA voters were white in 2012 and most of the voter population loss was older white voters while a disproportionate number of new voters in the state are non-white (especially Latino, even there)
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2016, 02:54:55 pm »

Age demographics skew old even for PA, one of the oldest states in the country. In 2012, 17% of the PA electorate was 65 or older. PPP has 23% of the electorate as senior citizens.

PPP also projects that 80% of the PA electorate will be white when only 78% of PA voters were white in 2012 and most of the voter population loss was older white voters while a disproportionate number of new voters in the state are non-white (especially Latino, even there)
Here we go again. Stop unskewing the polls!

We have two white candidates who're extremely (especially Trump) unpopular among youngs. I wouldn't be shocked, if we'll get more seniors and more whites than usual.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2016, 06:18:27 pm »

Don't worry, I'm sure Quinnipiac will be back soon to show Trump up 20 and destroy the averages!
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2016, 06:22:18 pm »

This poll seems legit, I'm one who trust PPP. But if it's true with Hillary getting a +7 bump, if I were both campaigns I'd campaign heavily here especially in the suburbs and Northeastern PA
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Badger
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2016, 09:27:25 pm »

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden?
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 35%
Not sure 13% '

Get this man to PA!

Uncle Joe to the rescue!!

The Democrats should have him make at least half a dozen trips, including a weekend before the election in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2016, 09:43:31 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 09:45:19 pm by Maxwell »

So... now Pennsylania has trended all the way to an R+ state. wow.

One positive - Clinton actually does better than Generic Democrat vs. Generic Republican.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2016, 09:48:49 pm »

I'm still actually quite chocked by this poll. Hilary's up 7-9 points nationally but only up 3 in PA. Where is she over performing, that's what I'm wondering.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2016, 09:54:28 pm »

I'm still actually quite chocked by this poll. Hilary's up 7-9 points nationally but only up 3 in PA. Where is she over performing, that's what I'm wondering.

OK, sparky, let's outline this.

PPP has her up 5% nationally, both 4-way and 2-way and in PA she's up 3 in a 4-way and up 4 in a two way... so it's not that big of a disparity.
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