North Carolina-Civatas/SurveyUSA Trump +4

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Internals are a disaster for Clinton (too few blacks, 1/3 blacks going for Trump, Trump winning 18-34 year olds)... and Trump still leads by only 4. NC is clearly in play.

Romney won 37% of the 18-29 vote in 2012.  And, Obama was a much better fit for young voters than Hillary.  I'm not particularly surprised that polls have young voters close this time- I think Rubio would have actually won 55%+ of the millennial vote.

[Flake]

Internals are a disaster for Clinton (too few blacks, 1/3 blacks going for Trump, Trump winning 18-34 year olds)... and Trump still leads by only 4. NC is clearly in play.

Romney won 37% of the 18-29 vote in 2012.  And, Obama was a much better fit for young voters than Hillary.  I'm not particularly surprised that polls have young voters close this time- I think Rubio would have actually won 55%+ of the millennial vote.

I doubt that, I don't think Millennials as a whole appreciate many stances the Republican Party has taken from LGBT rights to economic policy.

[Ebsy]

Civitas is beyond junk.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Internals are a disaster for Clinton (too few blacks, 1/3 blacks going for Trump, Trump winning 18-34 year olds)... and Trump still leads by only 4. NC is clearly in play.

Romney won 37% of the 18-29 vote in 2012.  And, Obama was a much better fit for young voters than Hillary.  I'm not particularly surprised that polls have young voters close this time- I think Rubio would have actually won 55%+ of the millennial vote.

In the universe you're living in, it's possible.

In the real world, well.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922001338933248
Civitas/SurveyUSA has Trump+4 in North Carolina, but black voters are woefully underrepresented (18%, shld be >=22)
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/760922404923244544
Poll is also too old, too male,. This is a sample off the voter file, which in NC has race/age/gender, so there's no excuse
Plus blacks support Trump 32%

Everyone go look at the NC voter file...
Black vote is at 22%, Civitas thinks it's 18%.
Female vote is 53%, Civitas thinks it's 50%.
Can't find any age statistics but 60% of the voting population being >50 seems too high.
I'm not gonna pull a StatesPoll but this poll is off in a lot of regards.
There needs to be a complete and total shutdown of Civitas polls until they figure out what is going on.

SurveyUSA interviewed 400 likely November voters from the entire state of North Carolina 07/31/16 through 08/02/16 using blended sample, mixed mode.
RV ≠ LV
This election is unique and the turnout might change a lot among different groups.
But still it is likely to be an outlier.

I will not use this poll. You can count on PPP getting a poll of North Carolina fairly soon, anyway. That will be worth the wait.

So you're only using polls you like now

Classic Conservative,
Even you have to admit that some of the items that Atlas members are pointing-out, do seem reasonable and the numbers could be somewhat off.
So people should still use the numbers as a base, and adjust them accordingly (slightly).
Let me ask you this : Do you believe blacks in NC support Trump 32% ?

[Vern]

I'm not believing this poll