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  YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +5
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Author Topic: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +5  (Read 935 times)
Fargobison
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« on: August 01, 2016, 07:06:35 pm »

Clinton 41% (+1)
Trump 36% (-2)
Johnson 8% (+3)
Stein 4% (+1)

https://t.co/GriKIFm30Z
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2016, 07:16:18 pm »

In 2 way

Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2016, 07:45:49 pm »

I have to believe the real numbers are somewhere in between the 2 ways and the 4 way polls. There will be third parties on the ballot in most states, but no way does Johnson surpass 5% or Stein gain more than 1.5%.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2016, 08:20:01 pm »

BTW the reason Johnson and Stein went up is because in previous YouGov polls they were not included in the question or answers and were only given as an option if you chose "other" which is unclear.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2016, 08:54:51 pm »

Why do pollsters change their methodologies halfway through the cycle?
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Arch
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2016, 08:58:42 pm »

Why do pollsters change their methodologies halfway through the cycle?

I guess they want to keep things fresh, like Subway.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2016, 09:00:23 pm »

Why do pollsters change their methodologies halfway through the cycle?
Internet polls like YouGov are more new age and experimental. I don't know if they really have their methodology down pat to begin with.

This was the poll that showed no bounce out of the convention for Trump, IIRC.
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Absolution9
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« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2016, 02:11:52 pm »

Question:

Before the conventions I heard a lot of talk that polling immediately after the conventions is inaccurate because partisan response rates tend to spike after a party convention.  Do you guys think that could be in play here.  Is Clinton really up 4-8 points or more like 2-4?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2016, 02:36:50 pm »

Question:

Before the conventions I heard a lot of talk that polling immediately after the conventions is inaccurate because partisan response rates tend to spike after a party convention.  Do you guys think that could be in play here.  Is Clinton really up 4-8 points or more like 2-4?

Generally the bounce tends to fade within a couple of weeks.  However, the ongoing bad news cycles for Trump could help keep her bounce up this time.

In short: we'll have to wait and see. Smiley
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
Zyzz
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« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2016, 04:42:27 pm »
« Edited: August 02, 2016, 04:44:11 pm by Zyzz »

Ask President Ross Perot, or John Anderson who won a smashing 24% of the vote in 1980 how much early polling for third party candidates matters early on and how much of their vote stays with them come November. I really doubt these 4 way numbers will end up being anything close to what these summer early polls say.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2016, 04:56:51 pm »

Ask President Ross Perot, or John Anderson who won a smashing 24% of the vote in 1980 how much early polling for third party candidates matters early on and how much of their vote stays with them come November. I really doubt these 4 way numbers will end up being anything close to what these summer early polls say.

Well Perot was polling steady at 12-14% before the 1992 election and got 19%. Anecdotes work both ways.
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