PPP-National: Clinton +5

[The Other Castro]

The PPP PA poll coming out this afternoon is a 5 or 6 on the Dem happiness scale, according to them.

[JerryArkansas]

The PPP PA poll coming out this afternoon is a 5 or 6 on the Dem happiness scale, according to them.

I'm going to say up by 4.  Maybe tied with the nation with 5.

[john cage bubblegum]

The PPP PA poll coming out this afternoon is a 5 or 6 on the Dem happiness scale, according to them.

Well a 5 or 6 on the Dem happiness scale would be like a lead of like 5 points.

[heatcharger]

The PPP PA poll coming out this afternoon is a 5 or 6 on the Dem happiness scale, according to them.

Hopefully they're underestimating what Democrats think will be good. I'm predicting Clinton +5.

[The Other Castro]

The PPP PA poll coming out this afternoon is a 5 or 6 on the Dem happiness scale, according to them.

Hopefully they're underestimating what Democrats think will be good. I'm predicting Clinton +5.

Given their national number of C+5, a PA number of C+4-6 would make sense.

[Kingpoleon]

Of course it is possible to get 50% of the vote and lose the election (see 2000) -- but not likely.

Dear liberal hack,

Al Gore got 48.4% of the vote.

And George W. Bush got less, but still won the Presidency. That is the point.

Al Gore got slightly more than 50% of the votes cast for the candidates of the two main parties.

So how is it possible to win 50%+ of the popular vote and lose in the general election? It's simple: one wins by tiny margins in most of the states that one wins, and loses by huge margins in states that one does lose. Winning Texas by 30% means just the same as winning Texas by 2%; one still gets Texas' 38 electoral votes. Winning California by 2% means the same as winning California by 30%; one gets its 55 electoral votes. Winning Georgia by 20% has the same effect as winning the state by 2%; one wins the 16 electoral votes of Georgia.

Work the model out in which those are the only three states. No matter how badly a nominee does in Georgia and Texas, even a bare win in California wins the Presidency by a margin of 55-54.  That is of course a horrible system, one that likely breaks as Georgia and Texas secede.     

I didn't realize that's how you count votes. "Third parties don't matter, so count them out." What else? Do we unskew votes for how Republicans keep people from voting in states?