PA-PPP: Toomey +1

[windjammer]

I never understood why people believed that Toomey was extremely favored or whatever. Mcginty isn't a disastrous candidate (although indeed democrats could have done better) and Toomey isn't some talented politician either, winning by only 2 points in 2010 is definitely not impressive.

[windjammer]

I have moved this race back to Leans R, which is where I had it before the primary. Toomey doesn't appear to be landsliding, but it really should be noted that only one potentially reliable poll has had McGinty ahead, and that was Marist, which is known for its democratic house effect. I would still definitely be surprised by a McGinty victory in the end.

(Suffolk is not in any way reliable as it was conducted DURING the D convention)

I do agree with regarding Marist. But this time we have a poll made by a decent/good polling firm that shows Mcginty only trailing by 1 point.