Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 22, 2019, 11:13:28 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  TN-icitizen: Trump +16
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: TN-icitizen: Trump +16  (Read 1209 times)
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 02, 2016, 01:06:37 pm »

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2016/08/02/poll-trump-still-leading-clinton-tennessee/87950854/

Trump: 49
Clinton: 33
Undecided: 18

Romney won Tennessee by 20 points in 2012.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2016, 01:08:47 pm »

Taken at the height of trumps bump so it is probably R+10 right now. Still safe R
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2016, 01:12:44 pm »

I think it is an online pollster using nonprobability samples. The methodology is a bit unusual but they have very professional looking crosstabs: https://icitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WT-RV-Tabs-TN-Omni-July_Public.pdf
Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,644
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2016, 01:38:18 pm »

Trump should win by at least this much.
Logged
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,081
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2016, 01:50:10 pm »

Would have thought he'd be ahead of Romney here.  Odd.

Really?  Isn't a huge part of the TN Republican vote the very affluent Nashville suburbs?  Trump might be barely outperforming Romney in rural TN (how much more of the vote can you get??), but he's almost certainly doing worse in the suburbs.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,350
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2016, 01:56:12 pm »

BUT HAS DOLLY PARTON ENDORSED YET?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,149
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2016, 02:39:31 pm »

Full results (with leaners, among RV):

53% Trump
35% Clinton

47% Trump
30% Clinton
  7% Johnson
  3% Stein
  6% Someone else
  7% Undecided

Favourable Ratings (RV):

47-49 Trump
32-64 Clinton
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,189
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.87, S: -6.96

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2016, 04:37:31 pm »

Would have thought he'd be ahead of Romney here.  Odd.

Really?  Isn't a huge part of the TN Republican vote the very affluent Nashville suburbs?  Trump might be barely outperforming Romney in rural TN (how much more of the vote can you get??), but he's almost certainly doing worse in the suburbs.

I thought will he will do slightly worse in the affluent suburbs and urban areas but even better among rural Tennessee - very white, not many college educated voters, pretty poor, etc. Fits the Trump profile well.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2016, 04:40:07 pm »

Tennessee is going to trend Trump even if he loses big. calling it now.
Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,597
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2016, 08:49:36 am »

Tennessee is going to trend Trump even if he loses big. calling it now.

Yeah, Clinton has zero chance here, even against a terrible candidate like Trump. The Democratic party is basically extinct in the state and a competent Republican would have won the state with more than 60% of the vote and maybe by the biggest margin of any Republican since 1972. It would have been the most Republican state in the South with someone like Kasich.

Also keep in mind that TN polls badly underestimated Republicans in 2012 and 2014. My guess is that Tennessee will vote to the right of Kentucky this year. It's only happened two times in the past 11 elections (1972 and 1988).
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,978
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2016, 01:07:25 pm »

Tennessee is going to trend Trump even if he loses big. calling it now.

Yeah, Clinton has zero chance here, even against a terrible candidate like Trump. The Democratic party is basically extinct in the state and a competent Republican would have won the state with more than 60% of the vote and maybe by the biggest margin of any Republican since 1972. It would have been the most Republican state in the South with someone like Kasich.

Also keep in mind that TN polls badly underestimated Republicans in 2012 and 2014. My guess is that Tennessee will vote to the right of Kentucky this year. It's only happened two times in the past 11 elections (1972 and 1988).

You live in MT now TN?
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines