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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  AZ-Predictive Insights: Clinton +3
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Author Topic: AZ-Predictive Insights: Clinton +3  (Read 2552 times)
dspNY
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« on: August 02, 2016, 03:16:40 pm »

Clinton 45
Trump 42
Johnson 4
Stein 1

Undecided 8

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-34549BEAED04456D
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tinman64
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« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2016, 03:17:45 pm »

Glorious news!

Who's Predictive Insights?
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King Francis I
windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2016, 03:18:08 pm »

I'm really skeptical
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Arch
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« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2016, 03:18:19 pm »

Nice. AZ is definitely a state to invest in this cycle apparently. GA is a little bit more of a challenge still.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2016, 03:19:31 pm »

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-2A45CA0283AA87B8

It was Clinton 47 Trump 42 on June 20.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2016, 03:20:49 pm »
« Edited: August 02, 2016, 03:22:34 pm by Ebsy »

Who knows at this point. It's a one day poll so take it with a whole shaker of salt.
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michelle
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« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2016, 03:23:32 pm »

Haha, I'd love to see Trump win FLOHPA but lose in Arizona.
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mds32
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« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2016, 03:28:08 pm »

Let's all just start up polling firms why don't we?
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2016, 03:28:48 pm »

Img
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2016, 03:35:39 pm »

Wow! The Bounce is real!
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2016, 04:05:11 pm »

Img

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Clarence Boddicker
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« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2016, 04:18:25 pm »

Low energy poll. Sad!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2016, 04:31:33 pm »

Are there no crosstabs or demographic information? If not, no validation.
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Ljube
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« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2016, 05:12:37 pm »

Low energy poll. Sad!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2016, 05:37:07 pm »

Call me skeptical.... although I could certainly imagine that this is a possibility.

Looking forward to seeing a real poll from a known pollster of Arizona hopefully soon.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2016, 05:56:44 pm »

Not since 1964 has a Democratic nominee gotten 45% of the vote in Arizona. Clinton won the state in 1996 only because Perot siphoned off a large percentage of usual R votes.   
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2016, 06:08:23 pm »

Not since 1964 has a Democratic nominee gotten 45% of the vote in Arizona. Clinton won the state in 1996 only because Perot siphoned off a large percentage of usual R votes.   

Clinton got 47% in AZ...
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2016, 06:12:02 pm »

Glorious news!

Who's Predictive Insights?

This is what I could find.... no idea of their track record and looks to be a fairly new company.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/owens-harkey-advertising-acquires-polling-company-starts-harkey

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Seriously?
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« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2016, 06:13:22 pm »
« Edited: August 02, 2016, 06:18:52 pm by Seriously? »

Wow! The Bounce is real!
Not unless the bounce is negative with this pollster. Hillary's lead shrunk from the previous poll.

Predictive Insights may not be rated, but its predecessor MBQF was. 538 gave them a C+. To be taken with the requisite grain of salt.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2016, 06:29:05 pm »

Wow! The Bounce is real!
Not unless the bounce is negative with this pollster. Hillary's lead shrunk from the previous poll.

Predictive Insights may not be rated, but its predecessor MBQF was. 538 gave them a C+. To be taken with the requisite grain of salt.
From June, before all the fake sh**t was thrown at her and dragged her down a bit.  But nice try boo boo.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2016, 08:10:03 pm »

Wow! The Bounce is real!
Not unless the bounce is negative with this pollster. Hillary's lead shrunk from the previous poll.

Predictive Insights may not be rated, but its predecessor MBQF was. 538 gave them a C+. To be taken with the requisite grain of salt.
From June, before all the fake sh**t was thrown at her and dragged her down a bit.  But nice try boo boo.
Apples to Apples with this pollster, Clinton went from +5 to +3. That's a negative bounce by every stretch of the imagination.

No one is saying that as of right now, Clinton is net negative in that time period, except this pollster.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2016, 09:56:11 pm »

I think we just need to see more polling from this state before jumping to conclusions on the basis of a single relatively "no name" polling company.

Reality is that Arizona completely fits the profile of a potential flip state, based upon demographics and recent political history.

Unlike much of the West, Obama was not a great fit for the state in the primaries and the GE.

Hillary is actually a much stronger Dem candidate for Arizona than we have seen for quite a few decades.

Time will tell, but Arizona is not a "write-off" state.
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FM Scott🦋
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« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2016, 09:57:52 pm »

Hillary would win so big if the election were held today.  BUHLIEVE ME.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2016, 10:10:17 pm »

Hillary would win so big if the election were held today.  BUHLIEVE ME.

So give it another month or two and then we know where we are at?

Think we're about (100) days out, so we'll see where Arizona is over the next few months.

At this point, I don't think anyone on the Forum has any evidence based upon a legitimate polling organization where the voters of the great state of Arizona are at....

This might be one of the few Western States where Hillary might actually over-perform Bernie in a GE matchup versus Trump.
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Speedy
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« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2016, 12:50:34 am »

I've heard a lot about worries of overextension with states like AZ, but with how large a money and machine margin there is between the campaigns, doesn't there have to come a point where Clinton's campaign almost can't saturate OH/PA/FL anymore just by throwing more cash/VIP rallies at them? Making them sweat in states that could break Trump's 3-swingstate-sweep gambit seems a reasonable gamble if done responsibly.
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