Marijuana 2016!

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California should be able to pass with around 55-56%. The state Democratic Party endorsed it, Newsom is anchoring his gubernatorial run to it, and a much larger & younger electorate than 6 years ago.

Feinstein and the police unions have gone all in with stopping it, but they've been losing influence in these law enforcement propositions lately.

I believe it will easily pass in Nevada and Maine. I'm not sure about its chance in Massachusetts and I'm not that optimistic with Arizona

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After a severe drought of California proposition polls, a "new" Prop 64 poll was released this morning.

Conducted by CSU Sacramento, ordered by California Counts (Collaboration of select NPR/PBS affiliates across California):

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Only groups it struggles with are Republicans and those over 65. Even then, it still manages to get 50% support among both

http://www.scpr.org/news/2016/09/07/64396/california-counts-poll-big-leads-for-kamala-harris/

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Finally, Prop 64 gets a more reputable poll:

SurveyUSA
Sept. 8-11
712 likely voters, MoE: ±3.8%

"Currently, medical marijuana is legal in California, but recreational marijuana is not. Proposition 64 would legalize and tax the recreational use of marijuana. Will you vote YES on Proposition 64, which would legalize the recreational use of marijuana by adults age 21 and older, and which would license, regulate and tax the marijuana industry? Or, will you vote NO on 64, which would keep state laws as they now are?"

Yes: 52%
No: 40%
Undecided: 8%


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=be4ba04e-e65c-4fbc-9d1c-bf87874ec85d&utm


I'm somewhat worried it'll completely flip in October, like what happened to Prop 19. That margin is too close to comfort for me

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LA Times/USC Dornsife (Conducted by SurveyMonkey)
Sept. 1-8
1,879 registered voters (English/Spanish), MoE: ±2%

"Proposition 64 would legalize marijuana use by adults 21 or older in California and impose state taxes on sales and cultivation. It would provide for industry licensing, establish standards for marijuana products, and allow for local regulation and taxation. If the election were held today, how would you vote on Proposition 64?"

Yes: 58%
No: 34%
Undecided: 8%


Republicans make up bulk of opposition, with 56% of Republicans voting no & 68% of Democrats voting yes


http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-pot-survey-20160913-snap-story.html

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The Los Angeles Times endorsed Prop 64. Pretty notable in that, six years ago, they opposed Prop 19:

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http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-proposition-64-20160918-snap-story.html

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Public Policy Institute of California
Sept. 9-18
1,702 likely voters (English/Spanish), MoE: ±3.5%

"Proposition 64 is called the “Marijuana Legalization. Initiative Statute.” It legalizes marijuana under state law, for use by adults 21 or older and imposes state taxes on sales and cultivation. It also provides for industry licensing and establishes standards for marijuana products and allows local regulation and taxation....If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 64?"

Yes: 60%
No: 36%
Undecided: 4%

Republicans are the only group opposed to it at 46-52. To my surprise, solid support across all regions of the state

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And to finish off the week in Prop 64 polls:

Field Poll
Sept. 7-13
942 registered voters (English/Spanish)


Yes: 60%
No: 31%
Undecided: 9%


Just like PPIC, Republicans and Conservatives are the only groups opposed to 64. Otherwise, solid support across all regions and age groups

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2548.pdf

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Looks like we can rate California as Safe Marijuana.

Certainly seems like it. I'm really curious for some Maine or Massachusetts polls. Whoever legalizes it there controls the New England supply

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Nevada, Suffolk University
Sept. 27-29 (Last poll: Aug. 18)
500 likely voters, MoE: ±4.4%

"Question #2 is the marijuana question and would regulate and tax marijuana similar to alcohol....will you vote FOR or AGAINST this question?

For: 57% (+9)
Against: 33% (-10)
Undecided: 10% (+1)



The west is looking very green at the moment.

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Depressed Republican turnout should help all of these measures pass.

I'm a little iffy on Arizona, but it's definitely gonna pass in CA, NV, and ME

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Depressed Republican turnout should help all of these measures pass.

I'm a little iffy on Arizona, but it's definitely gonna pass in CA, NV, and ME

What about MA?

I see that passing, a bit farther behind than the others. Here's what I'm predicting:

AZ: Fails 48-52 (Hesitant due to margin of Prop 203)
CA & NV: Passes 58-42
ME: Passes 62-38
MA: Passes 53-47

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California, SurveyUSA
Oct. 13-15 (Last poll: Sept. 27-28)
732 likely voters, MoE: ±3.7%

"Will you vote YES on Proposition 64, which would legalize the recreational use of marijuana by adults age 21 and older, and which would license, regulate and tax the marijuana industry? Or, will you vote NO on 64, which would keep state laws as they now are? "

Yes: 51% (-1)
No: 40% (-1)
Undecided: 8% (+2)


Barring any last minute ad blitz by the opposition, looks like California is gonna legalize pot by around the same margins as Washington & Colorado (55-45).

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Marijuana is passing in Massachusetts 55-40 in new poll

Very encouraging! I hope Massachusetts sees lots of new tourist dollars

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If a million bucks is all he is spending in some states, then he's 99% likely not going to sway enough votes to tank the initiative(s). Things have changed a lot over the past 6 years, and with a supermajority now believing in legalization, one can't change that many minds with what amounts to pocket change from Adelson's greasy pants.

And with polls showing support well into the 50s, an ad like this isn't going to sway voters this late in the game...especially in Nevada:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuP7-YEKHMs

The argument is also diminished when Colorado just implemented regulations on all edibles to be stamped 'THC' so that people can tell the difference

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Public Policy Institute of California
Oct. 14-23 (Last poll: Sept. 9-18)
1,704 likely voters (English/Spanish), MoE: ±3.4%

PROP 64:

Yes: 55% (-5)
No: 38% (+2)
Undecided: 6% (+2)

Hanging in there in California. No doubt about this one. Broad support across the board except with Republicans (60% no) and Latinos (47-48 no)

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USC Dornsife/LA Times
Oct. 22-30 (Last poll: Sept. 1-8)
1,500 likely voters, MoE ±2.3

PROP 64

Yes: 58%
No: 37% (+3)
Undecided: 4% (-4)

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At 1:30 am pacific, here's how the statewide marijuana measures did:

Arizona: Prop 205 (Recreational marijuana); Fails 47.9-52.1
Arkansas: Issue 6 (Medical marijuana); Passes 53.2-46.8
California: Prop 64 (Recreational marijuana); Passes 55.8-44.2
Florida: Amendment 2 (Medical marijuana); Passes 71.3-28.7
Maine: Question 1 (Recreational marijuana; Tied 50-50 (Yes +4,986)
Massachusetts: Question 4 (Recreational marijuana); Passes 53.6-46.4
Nevada: Question 2 (Recreational marijuana); Passes 54.5-45.5
North Dakota: Measure 5 (Medical marijuana); Passes 63.7-36.3

Pretty solid year for pot. Also predicted Arizona almost exactly

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FL finally Gets Medical Marijuana!

And Arkansas! The South just gained a fruitful crop