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  GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)
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Author Topic: GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)  (Read 4249 times)
Gass3268
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« on: August 05, 2016, 06:41:39 am »

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 40%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 2%

Source

Crosstabs
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2016, 06:44:29 am »

Give this state the $10 million!
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2016, 06:47:36 am »



Clinton winning independents, who trend pretty conservative, in Georgia by 5 (44/39)
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2016, 06:48:44 am »

Probably the best pollster for Georgia. They nailed the presidential races in 2008 and 2012, and in 2014, when most were saying a close race, they gave Perdue a decent lead.
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1J
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2016, 07:00:09 am »

In two-way, she's leading among less than college!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2016, 07:02:22 am »

**They don't break that out racially though... Whites generally have higher educational attainment.

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1J
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2016, 07:06:28 am »

**They don't break that out racially though... Whites generally have higher educational attainment.



You know what, I realized that too. Maybe I shouldn't get too excited about that.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2016, 07:09:34 am »

In 2012, Romney led all the Georgia polls by at least 8
In 2008, Obama had a 1 point lead in one Georgia poll. McCain led the other 25 polls taken after the conventions
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2016, 07:10:45 am »

Surprise
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Baki
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2016, 07:18:35 am »

I wonder...
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amdcpus
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2016, 07:19:31 am »

Johnson leads Trump in Blacks, 5% to 2%.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2016, 07:20:32 am »

She's trailing whites by 40 when Dems usually trail by 50. SurveyUSA and Landmark has confirmed this 40 point margin. If she can get 30% of whites, it's definitely game over.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2016, 07:24:36 am »
« Edited: August 05, 2016, 07:27:14 am by dspNY »

She's trailing whites by 40 when Dems usually trail by 50. SurveyUSA and Landmark has confirmed this 40 point margin. If she can get 30% of whites, it's definitely game over.

African-Americans are 30% of the vote and she'll get 90% of that
Hispanics are 5% of the vote and she'll get 75% of that

So that gives her around 32% of the overall state vote. If she gets 30% of whites that would give her just over 50%.

It is not game over but those numbers make it shockingly Lean D
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2016, 07:34:29 am »

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2016, 07:45:24 am »

She's trailing whites by 40 when Dems usually trail by 50. SurveyUSA and Landmark has confirmed this 40 point margin. If she can get 30% of whites, it's definitely game over.
African-Americans are 30% of the vote and she'll get 90% of that

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/georgia.html
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/

She'll probably get more. Obama got 98% in 2008 and Nunn got 92% in 2014. Maybe 95%+, at least with polls showing Trump getting 1% of the black vote.
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Frodo
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« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2016, 08:03:29 am »

Okay, Hillary definitely needs to invest in this state now that she has a real chance at winning it. 
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2016, 08:13:17 am »

IT'S HAPPENING
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michelle
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« Reply #17 on: August 05, 2016, 08:23:08 am »

Trump's collapsing! It's beautiful!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2016, 08:25:56 am »

Pollster has an A- from 538, fwiw.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2016, 08:28:03 am »
« Edited: August 06, 2016, 04:46:01 am by pbrower2a »

Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #20 on: August 05, 2016, 08:35:59 am »

This state will only flip if Trump goes down badly (which is likely at this point). This has the potential to be a VA 2008 redux.

Looks like Republicans are expanding the electoral map... for Democrats. SAD!

Hey buddy go check out that NH poll...
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RJEvans
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« Reply #21 on: August 05, 2016, 08:37:58 am »

In 2012, Romney led all the Georgia polls by at least 8
In 2008, Obama had a 1 point lead in one Georgia poll. McCain led the other 25 polls taken after the conventions

It's definitely in play, they just need to put in a little investment. If Trump is going all in in PA, OH and FL, might as well try to expand the map to GA and AZ.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2016, 08:47:36 am »

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #23 on: August 05, 2016, 08:49:19 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #24 on: August 05, 2016, 08:50:12 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
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