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Author Topic: GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)  (Read 4251 times)
michelle
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« Reply #25 on: August 05, 2016, 08:51:35 am »

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

No. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

If you look, you'll see the closest the Obama got was R+3 in March 2011. In fact, most Georgia polls hit the final margin pretty well (even underestimating Obama).
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dspNY
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« Reply #26 on: August 05, 2016, 08:52:32 am »
« Edited: August 05, 2016, 08:55:29 am by dspNY »

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

Except in the last two elections (2008 and 2012) there were 29 post-convention polls taken of Georgia (25 in 2008 and 4 in 2012) and the Republican led in 28 of those 29, with the only Dem lead being Obama +1 in 2008

This time around we have three post-convention polls; one showing Trump +4, one showing a tie and now one showing Clinton +4. Do the Republicans hold Georgia? In the end I think they will, but the state is unquestionably in peril due to Trump
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Saruman
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« Reply #27 on: August 05, 2016, 08:56:30 am »

Not sure I buy this but who cares at this point.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #28 on: August 05, 2016, 09:02:43 am »

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ga/georgia_romney_vs_obama-2150.html

Please point how this "always happens", because the AJC had him up 8 when the polled in 2012, and everyone except PPP had Romney up at least 7 in 2012.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #29 on: August 05, 2016, 09:06:54 am »

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

Except in the last two elections (2008 and 2012) there were 29 post-convention polls taken of Georgia (25 in 2008 and 4 in 2012) and the Republican led in 28 of those 29, with the only Dem lead being Obama +1 in 2008

This time around we have three post-convention polls; one showing Trump +4, one showing a tie and now one showing Clinton +4. Do the Republicans hold Georgia? In the end I think they will, but the state is unquestionably in peril due to Trump
I wasn't just talking about the 2012 POTUS race.

Tell that to Govenor Jason Carter or Senator Michelle Nunn.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2016, 09:08:25 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2016, 09:12:43 am »

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

Yes.
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michelle
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« Reply #32 on: August 05, 2016, 09:14:45 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

I would expect you to know that a Presidential race is not a Senatorial or Governor race, but I think that it may be asking to much of you.  
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heatcharger
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« Reply #33 on: August 05, 2016, 09:14:51 am »

Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

You think the 2014 electorate and the 2016 electorate are going to be the exact same? Have you ever wondered why Republicans do better in off-year elections?

I'm not saying this is the year GA flips, but you'd be surprised at how many people in my state sounded just like you in 2008.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #34 on: August 05, 2016, 09:16:46 am »

Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

You think the 2014 electorate and the 2016 electorate are going to be the exact same? Have you ever wondered why Republicans do better in off-year elections?

I'm not saying this is the year GA flips, but you'd be surprised at how many people in my state sounded just like you in 2008.
Do I think the electorate will be the same? Of course not.

Do I think Georgia polls will be Democrat friendly until October or November? Absolutely. They almost always are.

The meme goes.. Democrat has a chance.. Democrat is going to win.. Then Lucy yanks the football and the Republican exceeds expectations and wins by a larger margin than expected. As I said, ask Senator Michelle Nunn.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #35 on: August 05, 2016, 09:16:50 am »

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

Except in the last two elections (2008 and 2012) there were 29 post-convention polls taken of Georgia (25 in 2008 and 4 in 2012) and the Republican led in 28 of those 29, with the only Dem lead being Obama +1 in 2008

This time around we have three post-convention polls; one showing Trump +4, one showing a tie and now one showing Clinton +4. Do the Republicans hold Georgia? In the end I think they will, but the state is unquestionably in peril due to Trump
I wasn't just talking about the 2012 POTUS race.

Tell that to Govenor Jason Carter or Senator Michelle Nunn.

You could use that argument to dismiss polls in most states as Republicans all over the country outperformed their polling in 2014. 

Now, clearly Hillary will have to win by a pretty solid margin nationally to take Georgia.  If she ends up winning by 3-5 points, then she's going to fall short.  But a 7-9 point national margin is where things get very interesting in Georgia.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #36 on: August 05, 2016, 09:17:17 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

As do I. And we both know that Carter and Nunn basically matched Obama's 2012 performance among a historically diverse presidential year electorate with a much older, much whiter midterm year electorate, in what turned out to be one of the worst midterm years for Democrats in recent political history.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #37 on: August 05, 2016, 09:18:48 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

I would expect you to know that a Presidential race is not a Senatorial or Governor race, but I think that it may be asking to much of you.  
I would expect you to recognize polling patterns in a state, but that would be asking too much of you.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #38 on: August 05, 2016, 09:19:24 am »

I agree with Seriously? to the extent that Georgia shouldn't be considered Leans D or even Tossup yet. It's still a healthy Leans R, because most undecided voters typically skew Republican. Libertarians typically do relatively well here, and it's not clear Clinton can turn out the Obama coalition enough to compensate for the redneck Trump vote. But Georgia is no lock for Trump, and money spent defending Georgia is money that can't be spent attacking Pennsylvania.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #39 on: August 05, 2016, 09:24:57 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

I would expect you to know that a Presidential race is not a Senatorial or Governor race, but I think that it may be asking to much of you.  
I would expect you to recognize polling patterns in a state, but that would be asking too much of you.

True, Romney was leading all polls by at least high-single digits in 2012 and McCain led all post-convention polls in 2008. Considering these polling patterns, Mr. Drumpf is in deep trouble. Even if he wins GA by a small margin, its bad sign for the national trend. Unless he carries GA decisively (meaning by more than around seven points), hes supposed to lose general election by a larger margin than Romney.
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michelle
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« Reply #40 on: August 05, 2016, 09:27:00 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

I would expect you to know that a Presidential race is not a Senatorial or Governor race, but I think that it may be asking to much of you.  
I would expect you to recognize polling patterns in a state, but that would be asking too much of you.

Except for the fact that 2012 Georgia polls were R friendly, and you seem to be ignoring that and pointing to midterms. Yes, they may have had a D bias in 2014, but 2016 it's a different election (a presidential election), so 2012 polls would probably be a more accurate representation of this year's polling bias. And as for this specific pollster's history, it did not predict a Carter or Nunn victory.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #41 on: August 05, 2016, 09:33:10 am »

Clinton should invest in Georgia.

I am going to be cautiously optimistic and say that this still slightly leans R, but Clinton should invest here.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #42 on: August 05, 2016, 09:37:01 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

I would expect you to know that a Presidential race is not a Senatorial or Governor race, but I think that it may be asking to much of you.  
I would expect you to recognize polling patterns in a state, but that would be asking too much of you.

Except for the fact that 2012 Georgia polls were R friendly, and you seem to be ignoring that and pointing to midterms. Yes, they may have had a D bias in 2014, but 2016 it's a different election (a presidential election), so 2012 polls would probably be a more accurate representation of this year's polling bias. And as for this specific pollster's history, it did not predict a Carter or Nunn victory.
I just know how this state works.

With that said, I would look at any poll right after the DNC (or RNC for that matter) with anything other than the requisite amount of healthy skepticism.

Is it possible that Hillary! leads Georgia on August 5? Yes. Is it likely that lead will hold? No.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #43 on: August 05, 2016, 09:39:11 am »

Clinton should invest in Georgia.

I am going to be cautiously optimistic and say that this still slightly leans R, but Clinton should invest here.

Sure. And AZ as well. Force Drumpf to use his few resources on defense. If he loses one of them, hes done no matter what happens in FL, OH or PA (which would likely be won by Hillary in such a case). She should also attempt to win as big as possible.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #44 on: August 05, 2016, 09:40:20 am »

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.
Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

I would expect you to know that a Presidential race is not a Senatorial or Governor race, but I think that it may be asking to much of you.  
I would expect you to recognize polling patterns in a state, but that would be asking too much of you.

Except for the fact that 2012 Georgia polls were R friendly, and you seem to be ignoring that and pointing to midterms. Yes, they may have had a D bias in 2014, but 2016 it's a different election (a presidential election), so 2012 polls would probably be a more accurate representation of this year's polling bias. And as for this specific pollster's history, it did not predict a Carter or Nunn victory.
I just know how this state works.

With that said, I would look at any poll right after the DNC (or RNC for that matter) with anything other than the requisite amount of healthy skepticism.

Is it possible that Hillary! leads Georgia on August 5? Yes. Is it likely that lead will hold? No.

Just as much as your hero knows about foreign policy?
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Special K
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« Reply #45 on: August 05, 2016, 10:21:03 am »


Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.


Why Idaho?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #46 on: August 05, 2016, 10:29:57 am »

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

Obama never led in Georgia in 2012 and only led a single poll in 2008. So not really.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #47 on: August 05, 2016, 10:33:02 am »

I just saw a Georgia poll with Hillary ahead and I...



I'm aware that this is part of her bounce, but Trump has obviously hurt himself, and there's no indication that he'll tone down on his crap.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #48 on: August 05, 2016, 10:33:10 am »

There a few factors to remember here; Georgia has a plurality of college educated whites, there is a sizable black electorate and more Hispanic voters have registered this year. The Hispanic vote is not huge, but it could make a big difference in a close race. If Trump is losing college educated whites, his chances in Georgia are not good.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #49 on: August 05, 2016, 10:39:37 am »

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.
http://m.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
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