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  GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)
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Author Topic: GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)  (Read 4254 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #50 on: August 05, 2016, 11:22:30 am »
« edited: August 06, 2016, 04:47:10 am by pbrower2a »


Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.


Why Idaho?

Fixed now.
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Badger
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« Reply #51 on: August 05, 2016, 11:48:56 am »
« Edited: August 05, 2016, 01:37:47 pm by Badger »

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas Sad). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #52 on: August 05, 2016, 12:04:21 pm »

Why can't the election be tomorrow?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #53 on: August 05, 2016, 12:07:21 pm »

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South.

Indeed. Aging suburban sprawl + increasing diversity is tipping a Republican state to the Democrats, just like New Jersey 20 years ago.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #54 on: August 05, 2016, 12:55:13 pm »

I'll say one thing .... out of all possible stories/issues that get under Seriously's skin, this is the number 1 thing that makes his head itch the most.
Hopefully, we continue to see more Clinton leading polls in Georgia.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #55 on: August 05, 2016, 01:00:50 pm »

Hopefully, we continue to see more Clinton leading polls in Georgia.

Just a matter of time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton-5741.html

Landmark's 7/24 poll Trump +2
Landmark's 7/31 poll was a tie.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #56 on: August 05, 2016, 02:32:09 pm »

Uh, I hate to actually give any credence to SERIOUSLY? or whatever, but there is a grain of precedent for this: 2014. Carter (and to a lesser extent, Nunn) both had surges  in July/August, with Carter's surge in late July being quite massive in polling for some time - multiple polls showed him up by 7-8 points (this was largely due to Deal's scandals, if I recall correctly). In the end, it faded and Carter was only up in a small fraction in all of the polls after that.

If this poll is correct, then there is some optimism: Clinton doing well with the groups that tend to break 2:1 or 3:1 Republican at the end. However, there's 9 percentage points more potential Trump support at the end of the day in the four-way than Clinton support (and 16% undecided in the head-to-head). A lot can change.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #57 on: August 05, 2016, 02:33:37 pm »

^^^ But in the meantime...

 
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Seriously?
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« Reply #58 on: August 05, 2016, 03:38:14 pm »

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas Sad). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.
The Atlanta exurb counties are reliably Republican. I highly doubt that the undecideds there go to Clinton. Those voters are more likely to be blue collar than white collar.

And ProudModerate, nothing is getting under my skin. The numbers are what they are. But you are at peak Hillary! right now. If she's up +9 nationally, she could have a lead in Georgia. But I digress. These numbers will come back to normal in the weeks and months to come.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #59 on: August 05, 2016, 05:43:47 pm »

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas Sad). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.
The Atlanta exurb counties are reliably Republican. I highly doubt that the undecideds there go to Clinton. Those voters are more likely to be blue collar than white collar.

And ProudModerate, nothing is getting under my skin. The numbers are what they are. But you are at peak Hillary! right now. If she's up +9 nationally, she could have a lead in Georgia. But I digress. These numbers will come back to normal in the weeks and months to come.

That's entirely possible. But it's also possible that this is the beginning of the end for Trump, and that Clinton will be up 15-18 by election day. We just have to wait and see.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #60 on: August 05, 2016, 05:48:32 pm »


Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.


Why Idaho?

Fixed now.

If this is the map, I will be genuinely satisfied. For me, this is the "base map" for what the election result "should" be.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #61 on: August 05, 2016, 05:51:35 pm »

The AJC website has a couple of articles that go into quite a bit of detail on the mechanics of this poll.  As a stats geek, I really like this.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/how-the-atlanta-journal-constitutions-august-poll-/nsBBy/

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/frequently-asked-questions-about-the-ajc-poll/nsBM5/
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indietraveler
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« Reply #62 on: August 05, 2016, 05:52:13 pm »

I want to see more polls in the next few weeks before I start thinking about this--sort of just like this Clinton bounce overall.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #63 on: August 05, 2016, 07:20:40 pm »

BEAUTIFUL POLL!
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Desroko
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« Reply #64 on: August 05, 2016, 09:37:16 pm »

Whether Clinton wins GA or not is largely irrelevant - this state isn't going to be the tipping point. What matters is whether this convinces the campaigns to invest in a red state.
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Hammy
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« Reply #65 on: August 05, 2016, 10:33:02 pm »

I caution those using 2014 (and seemingly -only- 2014) to debunk the polls this year--2014 was a midterm, midterms have lower turnout, and that always favors the Republicans. I don't at the moment think Georgia will flip (it would need to be consistent over a long period of time for me to believe it) but I'm going to be dismissive based on a single year's polls being wrong due in part to low turnout either.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #66 on: August 05, 2016, 11:21:57 pm »

I caution those using 2014 (and seemingly -only- 2014) to debunk the polls this year--2014 was a midterm, midterms have lower turnout, and that always favors the Republicans. I don't at the moment think Georgia will flip (it would need to be consistent over a long period of time for me to believe it) but I'm going to be dismissive based on a single year's polls being wrong due in part to low turnout either.
Georgia has a lot of junk pollsters. Kind of like Michigan. I've seen this pattern more than just 2014. It happens over and over again. Republicans get underpolled and rally late.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #67 on: August 06, 2016, 04:41:09 am »

I caution those using 2014 (and seemingly -only- 2014) to debunk the polls this year--2014 was a midterm, midterms have lower turnout, and that always favors the Republicans. I don't at the moment think Georgia will flip (it would need to be consistent over a long period of time for me to believe it) but I'm going to be dismissive based on a single year's polls being wrong due in part to low turnout either.
Georgia has a lot of junk pollsters. Kind of like Michigan. I've seen this pattern more than just 2014. It happens over and over again. Republicans get underpolled and rally late.

Georgia doesn't have many pollsters. There are only three prominent and consistently active ones (IA, RS & Landmark). Landmark is mediocre; if anything, Rountree may very well consistently underestimate GOP support in order to scare GAGOP into getting off of their asses. As best I can tell, IA is the only truly garbage-tier pollster. I couldn't believe that they had the gall to publish that one poll in 2012 that showed Romney winning by 20+ points.

As far as the trend goes, 2014 is the only cycle where polling showed a fundamentally different race at one point, but this was a broader phenomenon that we saw throughout the country. The polls in 2008, 2010 and 2012 did not show Democrats ahead at any point (other than the odd, occasional poll - usually early in the cycle). The consistent trend in GA polling is that you basically take 70-75% of the undecideds in polls one to two weeks out and add them to the GOP column. This usually means that a Democrat would need to be up by 3 in late polling in order to have a shot in a presidential election and a bit more in any other election (to avoid run-off territory).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #68 on: August 06, 2016, 05:05:49 am »

We may be seeing a Trump collapse in the polls or even an overall collapse of the Republican Party. Polls would react to this, and definitely not lead. 

Can Republicans recover? Maybe -- just maybe. But that itself suggests a prediction. Polls indicate how people would vote if the election were to be held today. Of course we do not have snap elections.

I can imagine scenarios in which the Republicans could win the Presidency in a landslide -- but such would suggest that the political cultures that underpin the Blue (Atlas Red) Firewall that reflects political cultures in about twenty states themselves are eroding. An alternative is that the Republicans would have a nominee stronger than the ones that they have had since Reagan or that the Democrats have elected an unusually-weak nominee.   
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Badger
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« Reply #69 on: August 06, 2016, 07:25:33 pm »

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas Sad). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.
The Atlanta exurb counties are reliably Republican. I highly doubt that the undecideds there go to Clinton. Those voters are more likely to be blue collar than white collar.

Huh? Those counties are filled with upper middle-class whites in McMansion developments.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #70 on: August 06, 2016, 07:36:05 pm »

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas Sad). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.
The Atlanta exurb counties are reliably Republican. I highly doubt that the undecideds there go to Clinton. Those voters are more likely to be blue collar than white collar.

Huh? Those counties are filled with upper middle-class whites in McMansion developments.

It depends.... Hall County, where several family members live, is filled with poultry processing plants, and although there are McMansion developments, there is a large blue collar component as well and 26% Latino population....

I'm sure there are some other counties in Exurban Atlanta that you could pull up that have a higher chunk of upper-middle class Anglos in McMansions, but its a bit of a generalization to throw all exurban counties into the same chicken pot...
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President Griffin
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« Reply #71 on: August 06, 2016, 07:55:19 pm »

^^^ Yeah, it really depends on which counties you're talking about. If we use this definition, then they are largely blue-collar for the most part (with notable exceptions in Paulding, Coweta & Carroll, perhaps; Newton is definitely still in transition).

Honestly, I think many definitions of exurban/suburban for the broader ATL metro are overextended; many exurban counties are in fact still quite rural in nature, and many urban counties (if you dare to use the classification "suburban" alongside the other three) are really suburban in nature.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #72 on: August 06, 2016, 08:06:29 pm »

So does anyone know what the AJC defines as "Metro Atlanta" versus "Atlanta Exurbs"?

You have so many counties that are part of the SMSA, but in order to get these numbers my thought would be that Hillary is well exceeding Obama '08 numbers in Fulton, De Kalb, and Clayton.

Narrowly ahead in Gwinnett, close to even in Cobb/Henry and running significantly better than Obama in "Exurban Atlanta".

One of the other interesting things in the crosstabs indicate a (44-34 Clinton) lead in SE Georgia.... Maybe my math is all wrong but I'm trying to figure out that is possible, unless Hillary has dramatically improved numbers of rural Whites in SE GA.
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« Reply #73 on: August 06, 2016, 08:45:18 pm »

So does anyone know what the AJC defines as "Metro Atlanta" versus "Atlanta Exurbs"?

You have so many counties that are part of the SMSA, but in order to get these numbers my thought would be that Hillary is well exceeding Obama '08 numbers in Fulton, De Kalb, and Clayton.

Narrowly ahead in Gwinnett, close to even in Cobb/Henry and running significantly better than Obama in "Exurban Atlanta".

One of the other interesting things in the crosstabs indicate a (44-34 Clinton) lead in SE Georgia.... Maybe my math is all wrong but I'm trying to figure out that is possible, unless Hillary has dramatically improved numbers of rural Whites in SE GA.

Some time ago, I tried to reconstruct ABT SRBI's regional boundaries based on their cross tabs and population distributions throughout the state (first map). The map below was the closest I could come up with, with the original not splitting the "Exurbs" and "Metro". As far as population and geographic boundaries balanced were concerned, these boundaries made the most sense.

However, I went ahead and tried to break what I previously had as "Metro" (half of the state) into the two equally-sized groups of "Exurb" and "Metro" (second map). They must split some counties, or else the crosstab proportions combined with geographic common-sense just wouldn't make any sense.

The biggest difference I'm noticing between 2008 & this poll is in the Southeast: those numbers might be a bit unbelievable in terms of the difference. The rest more or less makes sense given the nature of the race.

In almost every area in the second map, Clinton is currently polling roughly where Obama finished in 2008, with Trump being 10 points below McCain's final total (with the exception of SE).

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« Reply #74 on: August 06, 2016, 09:29:38 pm »

In 2012, Romney led all the Georgia polls by at least 8
In 2008, Obama had a 1 point lead in one Georgia poll. McCain led the other 25 polls taken after the conventions

It's definitely in play, they just need to put in a little investment. If Trump is going all in in PA, OH and FL, might as well try to expand the map to GA and AZ.
Trump's not going all in in Pennsylvania. He has virtually no campaign in the state.
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