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  GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)
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Author Topic: GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)  (Read 4250 times)
Speed of Sound
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« Reply #75 on: August 06, 2016, 09:33:31 pm »

In 2012, Romney led all the Georgia polls by at least 8
In 2008, Obama had a 1 point lead in one Georgia poll. McCain led the other 25 polls taken after the conventions

It's definitely in play, they just need to put in a little investment. If Trump is going all in in PA, OH and FL, might as well try to expand the map to GA and AZ.
Trump's not going all in in Pennsylvania. He has virtually no campaign in the state.
I'll go full useless anecdote on you and mention that my father lives in my hometown in rural Berks County (just outside of "the collar") and he isn't seeing anything from Trump's campaign, but getting a lot of Hillary calls. Nor is he hearing a noticeable difference in % of supporters at his blue collar factory than with any other GOPer. Probably useless info though.
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dspNY
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« Reply #76 on: August 06, 2016, 10:04:25 pm »

In 2012, Romney led all the Georgia polls by at least 8
In 2008, Obama had a 1 point lead in one Georgia poll. McCain led the other 25 polls taken after the conventions

It's definitely in play, they just need to put in a little investment. If Trump is going all in in PA, OH and FL, might as well try to expand the map to GA and AZ.
Trump's not going all in in Pennsylvania. He has virtually no campaign in the state.
I'll go full useless anecdote on you and mention that my father lives in my hometown in rural Berks County (just outside of "the collar") and he isn't seeing anything from Trump's campaign, but getting a lot of Hillary calls. Nor is he hearing a noticeable difference in % of supporters at his blue collar factory than with any other GOPer. Probably useless info though.

Well he has to go all in for PA with CO and VA off the board and NV soon to join them
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #77 on: August 06, 2016, 10:15:27 pm »

In 2012, Romney led all the Georgia polls by at least 8
In 2008, Obama had a 1 point lead in one Georgia poll. McCain led the other 25 polls taken after the conventions

It's definitely in play, they just need to put in a little investment. If Trump is going all in in PA, OH and FL, might as well try to expand the map to GA and AZ.
Trump's not going all in in Pennsylvania. He has virtually no campaign in the state.
I'll go full useless anecdote on you and mention that my father lives in my hometown in rural Berks County (just outside of "the collar") and he isn't seeing anything from Trump's campaign, but getting a lot of Hillary calls. Nor is he hearing a noticeable difference in % of supporters at his blue collar factory than with any other GOPer. Probably useless info though.

Well he has to go all in for PA with CO and VA off the board and NV soon to join them
Oh I agree with you. He's not winning without PA. I'm just passing along what I'm hearing. Passion is up amongst WCWs, but I haven't heard that %s are.
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Badger
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« Reply #78 on: August 06, 2016, 11:26:41 pm »

So does anyone know what the AJC defines as "Metro Atlanta" versus "Atlanta Exurbs"?

You have so many counties that are part of the SMSA, but in order to get these numbers my thought would be that Hillary is well exceeding Obama '08 numbers in Fulton, De Kalb, and Clayton.

Narrowly ahead in Gwinnett, close to even in Cobb/Henry and running significantly better than Obama in "Exurban Atlanta".

One of the other interesting things in the crosstabs indicate a (44-34 Clinton) lead in SE Georgia.... Maybe my math is all wrong but I'm trying to figure out that is possible, unless Hillary has dramatically improved numbers of rural Whites in SE GA.

Some time ago, I tried to reconstruct ABT SRBI's regional boundaries based on their cross tabs and population distributions throughout the state (first map). The map below was the closest I could come up with, with the original not splitting the "Exurbs" and "Metro". As far as population and geographic boundaries balanced were concerned, these boundaries made the most sense.

However, I went ahead and tried to break what I previously had as "Metro" (half of the state) into the two equally-sized groups of "Exurb" and "Metro" (second map). They must split some counties, or else the crosstab proportions combined with geographic common-sense just wouldn't make any sense.

The biggest difference I'm noticing between 2008 & this poll is in the Southeast: those numbers might be a bit unbelievable in terms of the difference. The rest more or less makes sense given the nature of the race.

In almost every area in the second map, Clinton is currently polling roughly where Obama finished in 2008, with Trump being 10 points below McCain's final total (with the exception of SE).



Good call, Adam. Hillary's also several points behind Obama's number's in the SW, but otherwise spot on. I'm guessing the small picture is subsample size MoE. The big picture appears there are a lot of traditionally Republican voters who currently can't stomach voting for Trump. That would indicate they've probably a better chance for coming home to Trump rather than holding their nose and voting for Hillary.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #79 on: August 07, 2016, 01:26:58 pm »

Georgia can be won by Clinton if:

1. The unregistered black voters in the state are registered and they vote for Clinton

2. The suburbs of Atlanta, Macon, Savannah (which have highly educated voters, vote for Clinton. They would have voted for Rubio, Kasich, or Cruz, but Trump is too boisterous for them.

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HillOfANight
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« Reply #80 on: August 07, 2016, 07:26:30 pm »

So does anyone know what the AJC defines as "Metro Atlanta" versus "Atlanta Exurbs"?

I think you can reconstruct it from this, page 44
http://www.myajc.com/oct-2014-poll/
http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/ajc/_newsapps/2014/pollOctober2014/data/30162_GA_Poll_Banner_FINAL.pdf

For exurbs, I got Bartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Cobb (Huh), Fayette, Forsyth, Gwinnett (Huh), Newton, Paulding

Metro ATL: Henry Huh, Rockdale, Fulton, Douglas, Dekalb, Clayton

I don't know if these groups are the same, they don't have the same detail in the new tab.
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #81 on: August 07, 2016, 09:56:45 pm »
« Edited: August 07, 2016, 10:05:52 pm by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

^^^ OK, I adjusted my original estimates and redid what is apparently their exact boundaries. A couple of counties (like Baldwin) were not in those crosstabs and with them being on the boundary or 2 or more regions, I just put them in the region that made the most sense. Some of those boundaries they have are stupid, in my opinion. Nevertheless, the 2008 numbers in these regions compared to what I tried to guestimate were hardly different (save for the exurbs).
 
At any rate, here are the boundaries and the results:



The Southeast (particularly along the coast) is the most "moderate" portion of Georgia in terms of the aggregate of political attitudes; everywhere else that seems moderate based on election results is merely the result of a roughly split, very polarized electorate. Because of this, it's not a huge shock to see Clinton performing better here in the poll relative to 2008 (based on margin) than in any other area.

Overall, though, Clinton's margins relative to Obama's in 2008 are more improved in southern Georgia than in northern Georgia, and this isn't necessarily surprising. When people talk about white voters "coming home" and the old Dixiecrats that might still be out there, they are disproportionately going to be in South Georgia (and perhaps even more so in that SE region, although they'll be further inland/in the Onion Belt rather than along the coast; think Barrow's CD).

You also see the highest number of undecideds in these two regions (20% in "Southwest" & "Southeast" combined, compared to 13% in the other three regions combined), and that very well may be due to the older white voters who are contemplating returning to the fold and going back to their old ways instead of instinctively opposing Democrats like they have under Obama. At the end of the day, though, they may very well vote how they did in 2008/2012; it's definitely normal in Georgia for the bulk of undecideds to pour into the GOP at the last minute, but seeing a higher-than-average share of them clustered in this part of the state gives me a bit of hope.

At the end of the day, though, this could just be funny margins of error and the result of small sample sizes in this part of the state.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #82 on: August 07, 2016, 10:15:44 pm »

Wouldn't the geographic categories be based on telephone area codes?
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #83 on: August 07, 2016, 10:50:28 pm »

Wouldn't the geographic categories be based on telephone area codes?

They don't appear to be, since every region overlaps with at least three area codes (except for North, which is wholly contained within 2; its 2 are also represented in SE & SW). They're likely just using a voter file and randomly sampling it down to (at least somehow accurately) represent each county/area.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #84 on: August 07, 2016, 10:58:26 pm »

^^^ OK, I adjusted my original estimates and redid what is apparently their exact boundaries. A couple of counties (like Baldwin) were not in those crosstabs and with them being on the boundary or 2 or more regions, I just put them in the region that made the most sense. Some of those boundaries they have are stupid, in my opinion. Nevertheless, the 2008 numbers in these regions compared to what I tried to guestimate were hardly different (save for the exurbs).
 
At any rate, here are the boundaries and the results:



The Southeast (particularly along the coast) is the most "moderate" portion of Georgia in terms of the aggregate of political attitudes; everywhere else that seems moderate based on election results is merely the result of a roughly split, very polarized electorate. Because of this, it's not a huge shock to see Clinton performing better here in the poll relative to 2008 (based on margin) than in any other area.

Overall, though, Clinton's margins relative to Obama's in 2008 are more improved in southern Georgia than in northern Georgia, and this isn't necessarily surprising. When people talk about white voters "coming home" and the old Dixiecrats that might still be out there, they are disproportionately going to be in South Georgia (and perhaps even more so in that SE region, although they'll be further inland/in the Onion Belt rather than along the coast; think Barrow's CD).

You also see the highest number of undecideds in these two regions (20% in "Southwest" & "Southeast" combined, compared to 13% in the other three regions combined), and that very well may be due to the older white voters who are contemplating returning to the fold and going back to their old ways instead of instinctively opposing Democrats like they have under Obama. At the end of the day, though, they may very well vote how they did in 2008/2012; it's definitely normal in Georgia for the bulk of undecideds to pour into the GOP at the last minute, but seeing a higher-than-average share of them clustered in this part of the state gives me a bit of hope.

At the end of the day, though, this could just be funny margins of error and the result of small sample sizes in this part of the state.

Excellent analysis and breakdown and we will need to see more polls out of Georgia with regional breakdowns, but it does seem that maybe Hillary does have some appeal with White rural voters in SW and SE Georgia that can bring some of these ancestral Democratic voters back home.

If so, combined with increased performance in Metro Atlanta, than Georgia could likely vote Democrat in November, even with the 3rd Party vote...
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bronz4141
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« Reply #85 on: August 07, 2016, 11:12:07 pm »

If Clinton wins Georgia, it won't help Jim Barksdale, who is a underdog Democrat running against Johnny Isakson. I could see Clinton/Isakson split ticket voters. Can anyone else here see that, or can underdog Barksdale cause trouble for Isakson?

If Kasim Reed or Jason Carter had ran this year for Senate, Isakson would be in a lot of trouble.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #86 on: August 08, 2016, 03:41:02 am »

If Clinton wins Georgia, it won't help Jim Barksdale, who is a underdog Democrat running against Johnny Isakson. I could see Clinton/Isakson split ticket voters. Can anyone else here see that, or can underdog Barksdale cause trouble for Isakson?

If Kasim Reed or Jason Carter had ran this year for Senate, Isakson would be in a lot of trouble.

He'll underperform her by 2-3 points, I'm thinking...which is about as much of a difference that can exist at this point between any two (white) statewide Democratic candidates who are running in the same election in polarized, inelastic GA. If it were Chambliss, it might be a different story - he was never really all that liked - but Isakson in particular is a different story.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #87 on: August 08, 2016, 07:04:25 am »

If Clinton wins Georgia, it won't help Jim Barksdale, who is a underdog Democrat running against Johnny Isakson. I could see Clinton/Isakson split ticket voters. Can anyone else here see that, or can underdog Barksdale cause trouble for Isakson?

If Kasim Reed or Jason Carter had ran this year for Senate, Isakson would be in a lot of trouble.

I agree.  Barksdale's just not a good enough candidate, and Isakson should win handily.  Even Roy Barnes and Sam Nunn have contributed to Isakson's campaign.  With one of the two you mentioned, or perhaps if Michelle Nunn had run this year instead of 2014, this race would have been quite interesting.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #88 on: August 08, 2016, 08:13:33 am »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_2010
Isakson won by 19 in 2010, when Nathan Deal only won by 10 in his governor race. Something of an incumbency factor, plus the fact that he's not a total tea partier.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_gubernatorial_election,_2010
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #89 on: August 08, 2016, 08:30:57 am »

If the crosstabs are statistically meaningful, I'm surprised that Clinton is gaining big on Obama in the rural areas instead of the ATL exurbs?  I would have thought North and South Georgia would be hopelessly Trumpy but the Republican families grossing $100K in the country clubs 1/2 hour out of ATL would be the ones having second thoughts.

Reflexively Republican, Rich Rednecks.... She is gaining in Metro ATL, probably from the Rubio Republicans.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia
Trump did win Cherokee/Forsyth afterall.
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