GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)

[Badger]

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas ). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.

[Badger]

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas ). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.

The Atlanta exurb counties are reliably Republican. I highly doubt that the undecideds there go to Clinton. Those voters are more likely to be blue collar than white collar.

Huh? Those counties are filled with upper middle-class whites in McMansion developments.

[Badger]

So does anyone know what the AJC defines as "Metro Atlanta" versus "Atlanta Exurbs"?

You have so many counties that are part of the SMSA, but in order to get these numbers my thought would be that Hillary is well exceeding Obama '08 numbers in Fulton, De Kalb, and Clayton.

Narrowly ahead in Gwinnett, close to even in Cobb/Henry and running significantly better than Obama in "Exurban Atlanta".

One of the other interesting things in the crosstabs indicate a (44-34 Clinton) lead in SE Georgia.... Maybe my math is all wrong but I'm trying to figure out that is possible, unless Hillary has dramatically improved numbers of rural Whites in SE GA.

Some time ago, I tried to reconstruct ABT SRBI's regional boundaries based on their cross tabs and population distributions throughout the state (first map). The map below was the closest I could come up with, with the original not splitting the "Exurbs" and "Metro". As far as population and geographic boundaries balanced were concerned, these boundaries made the most sense.

However, I went ahead and tried to break what I previously had as "Metro" (half of the state) into the two equally-sized groups of "Exurb" and "Metro" (second map). They must split some counties, or else the crosstab proportions combined with geographic common-sense just wouldn't make any sense.

The biggest difference I'm noticing between 2008 & this poll is in the Southeast: those numbers might be a bit unbelievable in terms of the difference. The rest more or less makes sense given the nature of the race.

In almost every area in the second map, Clinton is currently polling roughly where Obama finished in 2008, with Trump being 10 points below McCain's final total (with the exception of SE).

Good call, Adam. Hillary's also several points behind Obama's number's in the SW, but otherwise spot on. I'm guessing the small picture is subsample size MoE. The big picture appears there are a lot of traditionally Republican voters who currently can't stomach voting for Trump. That would indicate they've probably a better chance for coming home to Trump rather than holding their nose and voting for Hillary.