GA - Atlanta Journal Constitution: Clinton +4 / Clinton +3 (w/ Third Parties)

[Seriously?]

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

[Seriously?]

An AJC poll in August shows a Democrat leading? No way! Georgia is doomed I tell you. Doomed.

Georgia is the New Jersey of the South. This always happens, just for the Democrats instead of the Republicans. Then reality sets in.  But enjoy it for a few weeks, red avatars.

Except in the last two elections (2008 and 2012) there were 29 post-convention polls taken of Georgia (25 in 2008 and 4 in 2012) and the Republican led in 28 of those 29, with the only Dem lead being Obama +1 in 2008

This time around we have three post-convention polls; one showing Trump +4, one showing a tie and now one showing Clinton +4. Do the Republicans hold Georgia? In the end I think they will, but the state is unquestionably in peril due to Trump

I wasn't just talking about the 2012 POTUS race.

Tell that to Govenor Jason Carter or Senator Michelle Nunn.

[Seriously?]

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.

Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

[Seriously?]

Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

You think the 2014 electorate and the 2016 electorate are going to be the exact same? Have you ever wondered why Republicans do better in off-year elections?

I'm not saying this is the year GA flips, but you'd be surprised at how many people in my state sounded just like you in 2008.

Do I think the electorate will be the same? Of course not.

Do I think Georgia polls will be Democrat friendly until October or November? Absolutely. They almost always are.

The meme goes.. Democrat has a chance.. Democrat is going to win.. Then Lucy yanks the football and the Republican exceeds expectations and wins by a larger margin than expected. As I said, ask Senator Michelle Nunn.

[Seriously?]

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.

Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

I would expect you to know that a Presidential race is not a Senatorial or Governor race, but I think that it may be asking to much of you.  

I would expect you to recognize polling patterns in a state, but that would be asking too much of you.

[Seriously?]

False. Democrats don't show leads in August in Georgia and Republicans never show 4 point leads in NJ.

Exactly. There is no Democratic parallel to Georgia. I thought it would be like Virginia 2004 this year, but it's looking more like 2008 the closer we get.

Looks like Seriously? is sweating like a dog that his state could vote for the red avatar party.

Yeah, Governor Jason Carter agrees with you. As does Senator Michelle Nunn.

Congrats! You have a lead in August after your convention. I'm sweating like a pig.

Do you really think that I don't know politics in this state like the back of my  hand?

I would expect you to know that a Presidential race is not a Senatorial or Governor race, but I think that it may be asking to much of you.  

I would expect you to recognize polling patterns in a state, but that would be asking too much of you.

Except for the fact that 2012 Georgia polls were R friendly, and you seem to be ignoring that and pointing to midterms. Yes, they may have had a D bias in 2014, but 2016 it's a different election (a presidential election), so 2012 polls would probably be a more accurate representation of this year's polling bias. And as for this specific pollster's history, it did not predict a Carter or Nunn victory.

I just know how this state works.

With that said, I would look at any poll right after the DNC (or RNC for that matter) with anything other than the requisite amount of healthy skepticism.

Is it possible that Hillary! leads Georgia on August 5? Yes. Is it likely that lead will hold? No.

[Seriously?]

I doubt Gary Johnson will get 10, but 3 is plausible, so the winner would need just 48.5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/
http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/

Interesting when compared to 2012.

The ATL Exurbs then were 35-61 Obama-Romney, now 33-51 Clinton-Trump.
The ATL Metro was 63-32 for Obama, now 69-20.
SE GA was 41-50 Obama-Romney, now 44-34 Clinton-Trump.
SW GA was 50-45 Obama-Romney, now tied (so 1 area Trump has strength in, or just noise).

College vote was 44-52 Obama-Romney, now flipped 47-36 Clinton-Trump.

The biggest question is which way the many undecides will swing, especially in the ATL exurbs, and most Johnson voters who'll inevitably peel off as the election nears (sorry for the reality check Atlas ). That probably bodes well for Trump. Though since the race doesn't require a runoff if no one gets a majority , unlike governor and senate races, Hillary has a decent chance of pulling out the plurality.

The Atlanta exurb counties are reliably Republican. I highly doubt that the undecideds there go to Clinton. Those voters are more likely to be blue collar than white collar.

And ProudModerate, nothing is getting under my skin. The numbers are what they are. But you are at peak Hillary! right now. If she's up +9 nationally, she could have a lead in Georgia. But I digress. These numbers will come back to normal in the weeks and months to come.

[Seriously?]

I caution those using 2014 (and seemingly -only- 2014) to debunk the polls this year--2014 was a midterm, midterms have lower turnout, and that always favors the Republicans. I don't at the moment think Georgia will flip (it would need to be consistent over a long period of time for me to believe it) but I'm going to be dismissive based on a single year's polls being wrong due in part to low turnout either.

Georgia has a lot of junk pollsters. Kind of like Michigan. I've seen this pattern more than just 2014. It happens over and over again. Republicans get underpolled and rally late.