Will Gary Johnson crack 5% of the PV?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Highly doubtful, tho circumstances do favor him doing the best in the PV that a Libertarian presidential candidate has ever done. He might even equal or exceed the Libertarian EV total if there are some faithless Trump electors.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Highly doubtful, tho circumstances do favor him doing the best in the PV that a Libertarian presidential candidate has ever done.

Of course, the best PV ever was only 1.07% in 1980--and that's also the second best raw PV total (921,128, with Johnson getting 1.2 million in 2012)--so "best PV ever" is kind of a low bar.

[Badger]

Highly doubtful, tho circumstances do favor him doing the best in the PV that a Libertarian presidential candidate has ever done.

Of course, the best PV ever was only 1.07% in 1980--and that's also the second best raw PV total (921,128, with Johnson getting 1.2 million in 2012)--so "best PV ever" is kind of a low bar.

The LP probably will break that low bar, though. They have the most qualified ticket they've ever had, and the two most intensely disliked major party candidates in history.

[hopper]

Probably 3% of the vote. I will be one in the 3% vote that votes for Johnson for the second consecutive election!

[IceSpear]

I doubt it. I think he gets 2-3%.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Going with 9-11%.

[Lief 🗽]

I think he'll beat Nader 2000, but fall short of 5%.

[defe07]

It all depends on his current polling numbers. If he gets into all 3 debates and he has a wave of bucks and endorsements funneling his way, he can be in the 20's and could swing the election to the House and get many EV. If he doesn't get into the debates, he'll end up with numbers between Anderson 1980 and Perot 1996 numbers.

[OwlRhetoric]

I don't see how third party numbers don't collapse without debate access. And that access is looking extremely unlikely right now unless Johnson can magically gain 5% over the next month to start averaging what he needs. He isn't getting even 5% without a national stage.

[defe07]

I don't see how third party numbers don't collapse without debate access. And that access is looking extremely unlikely right now unless Johnson can magically gain 5% over the next month to start averaging what he needs. He isn't getting even 5% without a national stage.

Pretty much this. Johnson is starting to get endorsements from sitting Congress members and is starting to get some dough. He needs to hit the campaign trail and hit the big and small states. Focus on trying to sway undecideds in the big safe D/R states to have his poll numbers go up while campaigning hard in small states like Utah to try and make a dent in the EV. I know President Forever is no reflection of political reality but its the strategy I'd use.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I don't see how third party numbers don't collapse without debate access. And that access is looking extremely unlikely right now unless Johnson can magically gain 5% over the next month to start averaging what he needs. He isn't getting even 5% without a national stage.

Pretty much this. Johnson is starting to get endorsements from sitting Congress members and is starting to get some dough. He needs to hit the campaign trail and hit the big and small states. Focus on trying to sway undecideds in the big safe D/R states to have his poll numbers go up while campaigning hard in small states like Utah to try and make a dent in the EV. I know President Forever is no reflection of political reality but its the strategy I'd use.

He had campaign rallies in Reno (I went to that one!) and SLC over the weekend. He'll be having rallies in Las Vegas, Denver, and Albuquerque in the near future.