Will Trump break 60% anywhere? (Now with WY option)
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  Will Trump break 60% anywhere? (Now with WY option)		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: In which of the following will Trump get >60% of the total vote?
#1
NE-CD3		  
#2
Wyoming		  
#3
Oklahoma		  
#4
West Virginia		  
#5
Idaho		  
#6
Alabama		  
#7
Arkansas		  
#8
Tennessee		  
#9
Louisiana		  
#10
Others not listed		  
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Total Voters: 71

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Author Topic: Will Trump break 60% anywhere? (Now with WY option)  (Read 776 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
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« on: August 06, 2016, 11:22:29 AM »
Sorry for the repost, but I forgot WY the last time.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2016, 11:27:59 AM »
I left off KY and UT (lol) because it's highly unlikely Trump would get 60% in these.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2016, 11:30:03 AM »
The first 6.
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Human
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2016, 11:30:09 AM »
Donald Trump will break 60% of the vote in NE-03, Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and possibly Alabama.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2016, 11:30:20 AM »
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2016, 12:13:08 PM »
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2016, 12:15:57 PM »

Though Idaho is iffy.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2016, 12:45:21 PM »
The first six, Tennessee, and also Kentucky.
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Human
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2016, 12:47:21 PM »
Why are you guys voting Idaho? Mitt Romney got approximately 64% of the vote in Idaho. You guys have to remember that Idaho has a huge Mormon population. A plurality of Idahoans are Mormon. The main reason why Mitt Romney performed so strongly in Idaho was because he's a Mormon. As most of us know, Mormons absolutely hate Donald Trump. I predict that Donald Trump will get around 58% of the vote in Idaho (compared to Mitt Romney's 64% in 2012) due to the Mormons that live in the state.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2016, 03:13:15 PM »
Top 6 except Idaho.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2016, 04:05:03 PM »
To be fair, the last Democrat to break 40% in Idaho was LBJ (only Carter '76 and Obama '08 have even broken 35%).
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AGA
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2016, 05:06:56 PM »
Why is Kentucky not an option? I do not believe that he will break 60% there, but it is certainly possible. Mitt Romney got over 60% there in 2012.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2016, 05:29:17 PM »
The first four.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2016, 05:42:32 PM »
The first four, and maybe AR/TN/KY.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2016, 06:01:18 PM »
Trump will get over 70% in Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia and will get about 60% in NE-3 and Kentucky.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2016, 06:07:47 PM »
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on August 06, 2016, 06:01:18 PM
Trump will get over 70% in Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia and will get about 60% in NE-3 and Kentucky.

Trump getting over 70% in Alabama would require a 20 point swing from 2012.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2016, 07:11:17 PM »
OK, WV, TN, and NE-03. If the race shifts in his favor again, he could break 60% in AL, AR, ID, KY, LA, and WY.
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nicholas.slaydon
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2016, 08:26:49 PM »
The Romney states above 60% minus Utah.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2016, 09:08:36 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2016, 09:15:31 PM by Badger »
Quote from: Kaine for Veep '16 on August 06, 2016, 04:05:03 PM
To be fair, the last Democrat to break 40% in Idaho was LBJ (only Carter '76 and Obama '08 have even broken 35%).

But remember, Ben, Trump being held under 60% in these locations doesn't require Hillary to reach 40%. Wink

Anyhoo, the first four I feel rather certain of and probably KY as well. The latter is the only one of these states where trends (i.e. the War on Coal) continue against Democrats, including Hillary. The other states involved McCain and Romney barely cracking 60%, and Trump is obviously running a far worse campaign. The whole "muh white working class" thing doesn't work, even generally IMO, but certainly not here as those voters in AL, TN, etc. have been near universally Republicans since before Bill Clinton left the White House.

The Clinton name still has a residual of good will in AR, or at least enough to keep Trump under 60%. Demographics will never allow Trump to hit 60% in LA, just as McCain and Romney couldn't.

I'm reasonably convinced at this point of Human's argument that Mormon voters' disdain of Trump and their being a about a quarter of the Idaho electorate will probably keep him just south of 60% there.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2016, 09:14:02 PM »
Quote from: Badger on August 06, 2016, 09:08:36 PM
Quote from: Kaine for Veep '16 on August 06, 2016, 04:05:03 PM
To be fair, the last Democrat to break 40% in Idaho was LBJ (only Carter '76 and Obama '08 have even broken 35%).

But remember, Ben, Trump being held under 60% in these locations doesn't require Hillary to reach 40%. Wink

That's true Wink What's the Libertarian ballot situation in ID? Because of course, many Mormon voters may just stay home, keeping Trump above 60% but with reduced turnout (interestingly, turnout actually decreased by 2,000 voters from '08--'12).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2016, 01:24:45 AM »
Quote from: Harry Perkins on August 06, 2016, 11:27:59 AM
I left off KY and UT (lol) because it's highly unlikely Trump would get 60% in these.

It's more likely he cracks 60 in KY/UT than he does in AR/TN/LA. In fact, I'm pretty sure he will in KY.
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