Hong Kong legislative election September 4 2016

[jaichind]

After looking through the platform of all the winners I re-labeled 2 Democratic Bloc Radical faction winners as Localism Bloc given their position on self-determination of HK.

It might be useful to look at the results by each district and compare it to 2012

New Territories East
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  40.70%         3           42.36%         3          
  Pro-Beijing               5.23%         0             5.26%         0
  Center-Right          29.37%         3           31.81%         3
  Moderates               6.10%          0            5.29%          0

Democratic Bloc       48.35%         5           54.80%         6
   Centrists                 1.39%        0
   Moderates             32.91%        3            39.06%        4
   Radicals                14.05%        2            18.58%         2

Localism Bloc           10.95%        1

The Localism Bloc drew significant support from Democratic Bloc to win a seat but overall the Democratic Bloc Radical faction was able perry the Localism Bloc surge.  As a result, here the Establishment Bloc lost a bit of their vote share due to the surge in turnout and was not able to attract any  Democratic Bloc Moderates  voters. The surge in turnout here seems to have Democratic Bloc Radical faction as it was made up some of its losses to the Localism Bloc  from the Democratic Bloc Moderates and the rise in turnout.





New Territories West  
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  44.76%         5           43.00%         5          
  Pro-Beijing               8.33%         1             7.07%         1
  Center-Right          36.03%         4           35.93%         4
  Moderates               0.40%          0

Democratic Bloc       30.62%         2           57.01%         4
   Centrists                
   Moderates             25.49%        2            46.25%        3
   Radicals                  5.13%        0            10.76%        1

Localism Bloc           24.62%        2

The surge in turnout clearly helped the Localism Bloc here as part of the radicalization of the anti-Establishment vote.  The Democratic Bloc Moderate faction completely collapsed here losing large amounts of vote to the Localism Bloc.  The Establishment Bloc was able to attract some support from Democratic Bloc Moderates  voters most as a reaction to the Localism Bloc surge.




Kowloon East
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  45.23%         3           44.53%         3          
  Pro-Beijing             15.13%         1           14.34%         1
  Center-Right          30.10%         2           30.19%         2
  Moderates                              

Democratic Bloc       40.75%         2           55.48%         2
   Centrists                
   Moderates            30.29%        2            31.15%        2
   Radicals                10.46%        0            24.33%        0

Localism Bloc          14.02%        0

This is a status quo election relative 2012 from the Establishment Bloc point of view .  A large part of the Democratic Bloc Radical vote went over to the new Localism Bloc but other then that it is a clone of 2012 results despite the higher turnout.




Kowloon West
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  42.08%         2           37.28%         2          
  Pro-Beijing               0.34%         0                      
  Center-Right          36.91%         2           37.28%         2
  Moderates               4.83%          0            

Democratic Bloc       29.44%         2           62.71%         3
   Centrists                
   Moderates             26.44%        2            46.09%        2
   Radicals                   3.00%        0           16.62%         1

Localism Bloc           28.49%        2

This region is historically the weakest for the Establishment Bloc and also saw the greatest mobilization for the surging Localism Bloc.   Here the reaction to the Localism Bloc drove some Democratic Bloc Moderate support over to the Establishment Bloc Moderates.  The Democratic Bloc Moderate vote base bled support to both Establishment Bloc as well as the Localism Bloc.  The surge in turnout which it seems mostly benefited the Localism Bloc and extracted for it an extra seat from the Establishment Bloc.




Hong Kong Island
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  48.80%         3          45.09%         4          
  Pro-Beijing             12.20%         1            9.16%          1          
  Center-Right          27.75%         2           35.93%         3
  Moderates               8.85%          0            

Democratic Bloc       31.72%         2           54.80%         3
   Centrists                2.66%
   Moderates             26.95%        2            43.09%        3
   Radicals                   2.11%       0            11.71%         0

Localism Bloc           19.48%        1

Here the Localism surge was quite significant which had the affect of droving Democratic Bloc Moderates toward Establishment Bloc Moderates.  The Establishment Bloc gained votes but lost a seat due to poor vote share allocation as well as a surge in turnout which seems to have benefited the Democratic Bloc Moderates.




With overall result being

                                        2016                              2012
                                Vote          Seats             Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  44.10%       16               42.73%       17
  Pro-Beijing               8.17%         3                 7.22%         3  
  Center-Right          32.02%       13               34.14%       14
  Moderates               3.90%          0                1.36%          0
 
Democratic Bloc       36.94%       13               57.44%       18
   Centrists                 0.84%        0
   Moderates             28.58%      11                41.43%      14
   Radicals                   7.53%       2                15.83%        4

Localism Bloc           18.96%        6

[jaichind]

Most of the Western media talks about the election results as a blow to Beijing.  I do not see how it is so.  It is true that the pro-HK Independence candidates managed to  get elected but they mostly cannibalized the Democratic Bloc votes anyway.  And even in a very high turnout election the Pro-Establishment Bloc managed to gain votes (mostly Democratic Bloc Moderate voters turned off by the Localism Bloc.)  Frankly given the increasing bad relationship between the  Establishment Bloc and Beijing, if it did not exist, Beijing would to invent the HK independence movement to drive centrist voters to the  Establishment Bloc and drive the Establishment Bloc toward working with the PRC.  Now that the Localism Bloc  has established itself with a vote base of almost 20% it is here to stay with its stated agenda of destroying the Democratic Bloc  (even the Radical faction) and displace it as the main opposition force to PRC in HK.  This sort of Civil War within the anti-PRC forces in HK must be music to the ears of the PRC regime.

[jaichind]

This election seems to be the Waterloo of Democratic Bloc Radical faction.  Other than LSD and PP which still have some strength in New Territories East where it won 2 seats and Kowloon East where it did not win but got enough votes to sink the Localism Bloc candidates, the faction has been completely wiped out and marginalized throughout HK.  To survive I suspect both LSD and PP will have to join Localism Bloc and reduce the Democratic Bloc to just the Moderate faction.  The enlarged Localism Bloc will be a force that is near parity with the remaining Democratic Bloc.  Politics in HK will be a three cornered battle between a still relatively dominate Establishment Bloc with Democratic Bloc and Localism Bloc as two separate opposition blocs.

[jaichind]

This chart



Also shows the evolution on vote share from 2008 to 2016.  Red is Establishment Bloc, Green are Democratic Bloc Moderates/Centrist,  Yellow are Democratic Bloc Radicals, Deep Blue are Localism (pro-independence) and Light Blue are Localism (self-determination but not necessary pro-independence.)  Grey is "Hard to categorize" which are rebels of various colors.  I lump the various rebels with the right Bloc based on their platform that is why my numbers are somewhat different (about 2/3 of the Grey or "Hard to categorize" are Establishment Bloc rebels and the rest are non-Establishment Bloc rebels.)  Of course this chart tells the same story as my chart.  Establishment Bloc keeping their vote share despite larger turnout which should help Democratic Bloc and the Localism Bloc cannibalizing the Democratic Bloc and especially pretty much sinking the Democratic Bloc Radical faction.

[reciprocity]

Do you know the history as to why Hong Kong went with party lists rather than a FPTP electoral system like other historical British colonies.

[jaichind]

Do you know the history as to why Hong Kong went with party lists rather than a FPTP electoral system like other historical British colonies.

It used to be FPTP before 1997.  The incoming government in HK was considering either a pure PR system with party lists or an AV system.  There was no consensus on this topic so they went with a  multi-member SNTV system.

[jaichind]

This election, at a very subtle and different level, is a victory for the PRC.  The decline of the  Democratic Bloc Moderate faction with the Localism Bloc on their Left flank pretty much seals off their ability to expand into Mainland China which is what the PRC regime really fears.  The Localism Bloc with their HK Independence agenda is really a non-starter as a force to expand into the rest Mainland China.  The real danger to the PRC regime is if  Localism Bloc transforms itself into a Guangdong independence on the basis of Cantonese identity.  But the most of the Localism Bloc are filled with pro-West Social Democratic idealist and are unlikely to make that transformation.  This is the best gift for the current PRC regime with both the Democratic Bloc Moderate faction and  Localism Bloc both stuck in HK fighting each out and  staying out of the Mainland China heartland.

[peterthlee]

Well, the whole Kowloon trended Pro-establishment. As a native born and bred Hong Kong resident, I expect the by-elections in Kowloon West move into Pro-Beijing's column solidly.

By the way, please follow my thread on the upcoming CE election.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250144.0