What states will Donald Trump do better than Mitt Romney in?
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Author Topic: What states will Donald Trump do better than Mitt Romney in?  (Read 691 times)
Human
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« on: August 06, 2016, 12:35:18 PM »
This is a pretty tough question IMO. It's very likely that Donald Trump does worse than Mitt Romney in every state.

I think Donald Trump will do slightly better than Mitt Romney in New Jersey, New York, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Alabama (due to slightly decreased black turnout and muh southern whites). Tennessee and Kentucky are also possibilities. I can't see Donald Trump doing better than Mitt Romney in any other state.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2016, 02:03:42 PM »
West Virginia
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pppolitics
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2016, 02:14:08 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 06, 2016, 12:37:00 PM
Utah.

lol jk, too early to tell, obviously.

Mormons love Trump
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2016, 05:44:27 PM »
West Virginia, New York, New Jersey, and maybe Kentucky and Tennessee.
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OneJ
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2016, 05:53:30 PM »
Quote from: Human on August 06, 2016, 12:35:18 PM
This is a pretty tough question IMO. It's very likely that Donald Trump does worse than Mitt Romney in every state.

I think Donald Trump will do slightly better than Mitt Romney in New Jersey, New York, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Alabama (due to slightly decreased black turnout and muh southern whites). Tennessee and Kentucky are also possibilities. I can't see Donald Trump doing better than Mitt Romney in any other state.

I don't think he'll outperform Romney in Mississippi. However, the other states seem about right.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2016, 05:56:42 PM »
All of them, but perhaps Utah and Idaho. It's an open seat election and Romney was a terrible candidate. A decent candidate beats Obama in 2012.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2016, 06:03:41 PM »
Probably West Virginia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Maine.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2016, 06:13:18 PM »
My guess using Skill and Chance's system:
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Breton Racer
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2016, 06:18:54 PM »
None, Gary Johnson will probably take a sizable amount of the vote.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2016, 06:44:08 PM »
Here's my guess at a swing map. This is being a bit generous to Trump (assuming ~ a 5 point win for Hillary).
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2016, 07:08:07 PM »
Illinois (no home state advantage), Iowa, Tennessee, West Virginia, ME-02. Kentucky, New Jersey, and New York could also swing towards Trump a little.
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2016, 07:39:17 PM »
By absolute percentage of the vote? Considering the greatly elevated support for third-party candidates, probably nowhere, with West Virginia as the best shot. By margin versus Hillary, a gaggle of Northeastern states (MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, WV) seem likely.

What evidence we have from polling suggests Trump's margins are likely to be weaker than Romney's throughout the South.
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Badger
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2016, 10:33:20 PM »
In terms of raw percentage rather than margin between he and Hillary: WV and maybe KY.
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AGA
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2016, 01:33:32 PM »
NY, NJ, PA, VT, WV, and HI. Maybe some others, but it is hard to tell at this point.
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