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  CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA
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Author Topic: CBS News/YouGov: Close races in AZ & NV, Hillary way ahead in VA  (Read 3912 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 07, 2016, 09:31:52 am »



https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/07/cbs-battleground-tracker-arizona-nevada-virginia
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2016, 09:33:23 am »

WOW! Great numbers. Time to start investing in Arizona.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2016, 09:33:44 am »

Didn't expect VA to become Safe D so fast.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2016, 09:34:23 am »

NV continues to be really close somehow ...

BTW, they did not forget Jill Stein in VA - she has not filed there yet.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2016, 09:35:36 am »

Why is NV so close? Closer than CO according to the polls?

Weren't we all taking about how CO hates Clinton a year ago?
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2016, 09:36:26 am »

Why is Nevada not moving hard to Clinton like Colorado did? Nevada should be more demographically favorable
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2016, 09:36:54 am »

Better than I thought actually tbh
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2016, 09:37:18 am »

Typical Nevada. Clinton will win it by 9 on election night.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2016, 09:37:41 am »

Why is Nevada not moving hard to Clinton like Colorado did? Nevada should be more demographically favorable
Trump seems like he is a very good fit for Whites there.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2016, 09:37:47 am »

Why is NV so close? Closer than CO according to the polls?

Weren't we all taking about how CO hates Clinton a year ago?

Because pollsters suck at polling Spanish speakers, which there are a lot of in NV.

Typical Nevada. Clinton will win it by 9 on election night.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2016, 09:40:57 am »
« Edited: August 07, 2016, 09:45:02 am by Interlocutor »

Wow, the door is fast slamming shut on Trump. He's gonna be on total defense for the next 3 months.

If VA goes Trump, he has to match Romney + FL/OH/IA/NV/NM/NH. Very improbable at this stage
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2016, 09:43:54 am »

No Spanish option...
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2016, 09:45:21 am »


Means the Nevada poll is pretty questionable.
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swf541
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2016, 09:45:50 am »

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2016, 09:47:33 am »


Actually not. It seems the poll was weighted according to 2012 exit polls, with 19% Hispanics.

And they back Clinton over Trump by a lot ...
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2016, 09:48:06 am »

2012 exits have Nevada at 64% white, this poll is 67%. The electorate will probably be 61% or so this year.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2016, 09:51:48 am »

Wow, the door is fast slamming shut on Trump. He's gonna be on total defense for the next 3 months.

If VA goes Trump, he has to match Romney + FL/OH/IA/NV/NM/NH. Very improbable at this stage

Or just flohpa.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2016, 09:52:44 am »


Actually not. It seems the poll was weighted according to 2012 exit polls, with 19% Hispanics.

And they back Clinton over Trump by a lot ...

Amd they'd back her even more overwhelmingly if there was a spanish language choice.
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2016, 09:55:05 am »

Why is Nevada not moving hard to Clinton like Colorado did? Nevada should be more demographically favorable

Nevada and Colorado are Democratic for different reason. Nevada because it's non-white population is large and growing and Colorado because it's large college educated population (and growing Hispanic population). It's easier to poll college educated whites than Hispanics and Asians, so Colorado shows a more consistent Clinton lead.
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2016, 09:56:08 am »

That VA number seems a bit inflated, but maybe VA really is becoming less of a swing state. Not surprised about NV. Those of you thinking it will be close will be shocked again on election night, when Hillary easily takes it by more than the actual swing states. No way is it only four points to the left of AZ.
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dspNY
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2016, 09:56:48 am »


Is there really no Spanish option? How can you poll NV and AZ without a Spanish interviewer or questionnaire
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2016, 09:57:27 am »


Actually not. It seems the poll was weighted according to 2012 exit polls, with 19% Hispanics.

And they back Clinton over Trump by a lot ...

Amd they'd back her even more overwhelmingly if there was a spanish language choice.

Not necessarily. If anything, Hillary is undervalued by 2-3% at best because both she and Trump have 100% name recognition, even among Latinos. It simply doesn't matter if you ask "are you voting for Clinton or Trump ?" or the Spanish version of it because they are known to everyone.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2016, 09:59:13 am »

LOL. RIP Battleground Virginia.

It seems that more and more battlegrounds, most won by W in 2004, move more and more into the Democratic column.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2016, 10:00:03 am »


Is there really no Spanish option? How can you poll NV and AZ without a Spanish interviewer or questionnaire

Don't be silly: If you are smart enough to register for the YouGov online panel in ENGLISH, you are also smart enough to fill out a simple question that asks "Are you voting Clinton or Trump ?"

No Spanish needed.

Roll Eyes
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Vosem
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« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2016, 10:00:05 am »

Much as I don't understand it, the fact that the AZ and VA numbers seem normal and aligned with all the other polling firms seem to give credence to the NV numbers for me. Hillary is indeed only barely pulling out a win there, for whatever reason.
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